[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 301754
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
200 PM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 69.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.  Watches may be required for a portion of
the Florida peninsula later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 69.8 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward
speed is expected over the next couple of days.  On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will continue to move over Hispaniola
through this evening, and be near the Southeastern Bahamas by late
tonight or early Friday. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central
Bahamas Friday night and move near or over the Northwest Bahamas or
South Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is possible as Isaias continues
to move over Hispaniola today. Re-strengthening is forecast on
Friday and Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
primarily to the north of the center.  A weather station at Punta
Cana near the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic reported
sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h)
within the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning
area, and are expected to spread over the southeastern Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos later today.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Central Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are
possible in the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding.  Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern and
southwestern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida
Saturday morning. This rain could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

SURF:  Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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