[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 301450
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO...
....HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 68.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.  Watches may be required for a portion of
the Florida peninsula later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 68.9 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward
speed is expected over the next couple of days.  On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola today and move
near the Southeastern Bahamas by tonight or early Friday. Isaias is
forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and approach
the Northwest Bahamas or southern Florida Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight weakening is possible as Isaias moves over Hispaniola
today. Re-strengthening is forecast on Friday and Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
primarily to the north of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds are
occuring along the southern coast of Puerto Rico. A Weatherflow
station at Las Mareas, Puerto Rico, reported sustained winds of 45
mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).  A wind gust of 60
mph (96 km/h) was recently reported at Punta Cana on the eastern
tip of the Dominican Republic.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early afternoon.
These conditions are spreading over portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti within the warning area, and are expected to
spread over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos later
today.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Central
Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are possible in the
northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding.  Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern and
southwestern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida
Saturday morning. This rain could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

SURF:  Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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