[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1026 UTC Wed Jul 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is centered near 15.3N 61.3W at
29/0900 UTC near Dominica moving WNW at 20 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt.

PTC Nine remains a very elongated system from SSW to NNE across
the Lesser Antilles. Most of the winds are well north of the low
level center, with seas to 18 ft seas building in the Atlantic
waters northeast of the Leeward Islands. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the
northwest semicircle of the center.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W, from 21N southward,
moving W 15 knots. No significant convection is observed near the
wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W, from northeast
Colombia to Haiti, moving W 10 to 15 knots. No significant
convection is noted near the wave axis.

The northern portion of a tropical wave along 86W/87W through
the Gulf of Honduras, south of 18N. This wave is moving W 15
knots. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 15N17W to 07N36W to 10N50W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 11N to 13N between
17W and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
08N between 36W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the northern Gulf, supporting gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas across the basin,
except for fresh winds and 3 to 5 ft seas off the west coast of
the Yucatan peninsula. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active over the coast of Veracruz this morning, generated by
moist, convergent flow in the low levels and upper diffluence in
the easterly flow aloft. No significant convection is noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, little change through Sat. Beyond that, much
will depend on the track and intensity of Potential Tropical
Cyclone Nine, now moving into the eastern Caribbean. Nine may
approach the Florida Straits and far southeast Gulf by Sat and
Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are ongoing
elsewhere. A few showers are noted from western Panama to near
the Corn Islands off Nicaragua. Otherwise no significant
convection is evident west of the activity over the eastern
Caribbean.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring tropical storm
conditions to the northeastern Caribbean Sea today and tonight.
Strong winds are expected through the Windward Passage to Jamaica
by early Thu morning. Winds and seas will largely diminish over
the eastern Caribbean Fri, except for an area of swell to at
least 8 ft that will penetrate through the Mona Passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extending east to west along roughly 30N is
supporting fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas south of 22N west of
65W, and gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere
over open waters west of 65W. The ridge will lift north ahead of
the advance of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Strong to near
gale force winds and seas to 18 ft are already impacting the
Atlantic waters within 480 nm northeast of the Leeward Islands,
to the north of Nine. This swath of dangerous winds and seas will
sweep to the west-northwest toward the Turks and Caicos Islands
and southern Bahamas through Thu, and into the central and
northern Bahamas through Fri to include the adjacent offshore
waters. Winds and seas will diminish through Sat as the center
axis of Nine shifts west of the area.

Elsewhere farther east, the subtropical ridge dominates the
Atlantic basin, generally supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas south of 22N, and gentle winds and 3 to
5 ft north of 22N. The exception is off the west coast of Africa
where fresh to strong NW winds and 8 ft seas persist at least
through today.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net