[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290612
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE, at 29/0600 UTC,
is near 14.9N 60.3W. This position also is about 43 nm/80 km to
the ENE of Martinique, and about 391 nm to the ESE of San Juan
in Puerto Rico.   The Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE is moving
WNW, or 295 degrees, 22 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35
knots with gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 250 nm of the center in the NW
semicircle. A Tropical storm WATCH has been issued for The Turks
and Caicos Islands, and the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions are
nearing the Leeward Islands. It is possible that heavy rainfall
may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides in: the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, from
tonight through early Thursday. Expect tropical storm force
winds, hazardous seas, and heavy rain squalls, in the NE
Caribbean Sea, on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W/29W, from 22N southward,
moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is in
the monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72w, from Hispaniola
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: Isolated moderate is within 360 nm on either side
of the tropical wave, from 11N southward, in parts of Venezuela
and Colombia.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 18N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N to 20N between
SE Cuba and Central America.
The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from Colombia along 74W
westward, to the coastal waters of Central America from
Nicaragua southward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 12N southward between central Panama and
85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 16N17W, to 14N20W to 09N30W, 07N40W, and 09N50W.
Precipitation: Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is
within 75 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 35W
and 40W; scattered moderate to strong is within 60 nm to the
north of the monsoon trough and within 180 nm to the south of
the monsoon trough from 20W eastward, and within 60 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough between 42W and 50W; isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 17N southward from
50W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near the border
area of the Deep South of Texas and NE Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 26N southward from
90W westward.

An upper level inverted trough extends from the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico to the north central sections of the Gulf of
Mexico. The rest of the area is covered by upper level
anticyclonic wind flow. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered convective debris clouds, and weakening but still
lingering rainshowers, are within 240 nm of the coast of the
U.S.A., from SW Florida to the upper Texas Gulf coast.

Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE near 14.6N 59.4W 1007 mb at 11
PM EDT moving WNW at 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts
45 kt. NINE will move to 15.7N 62.3W on Wednesday morning; while
likely becoming a tropical storm. A surface ridge will dominate
the rest of the Gulf of Mexico waters through Friday, supporting
mainly gentle to moderate return flow.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE is forecast to bring tropical
storm conditions to the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday
and Wednesday night.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 18N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N to 20N between
SE Cuba and Central America.
The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from Colombia along 74W
westward, to the coastal waters of Central America from
Nicaragua southward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 12N southward between central Panama and
85W.

Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE near 14.6N 59.4W 1007 mb at 11
PM EDT moving WNW at 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts
45 kt. NINE will move to 15.7N 62.3W Wed morning; 17.4N 65.9W
Wed evening; inland to 18.7N 69.3W Thu morning; 20.1N 72.6W Thu
evening; 21.5N 75.5W Fri morning; and 22.8N 77.7W on Friday
evening. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected, from Wednesday
night through Thursday night, across the Windward Passage and
Cuba's adjacent waters. Fresh trade winds will prevail in
Colombia's
adjacent waters, and in the Gulf of Honduras through Wednesday
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE is forecast to bring tropical
storm conditions today to the Tropical
North Atlantic Ocean, to the east of the Caribbean Sea. The
system is forecast to bring tropical storm
conditions to the waters near the Greater Antilles and the
Bahamas, from Wednesday night through Friday.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 240 nm to
the ENE of the border of NE Florida and SE Georgia.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 27N and the NW Bahamas northward from 70W westward.
Upper-level divergence is enhancing scattered showers and
isolated storms well east of

Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE near 14.6N 59.4W 1007 mb at 11
PM EDT moving WNW at 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts
45 kt. NINE will move to 15.7N 62.3W on Wednesday morning; 17.4N
65.9W Wed evening; inland to 18.7N 69.3W on Thursday morning;
20.1N 72.6W Thu evening; 21.5N 75.5W Fri morning; and 22.8N
77.7W on Friday evening. Heavy rainshowers and thunderstorms are
expected to affect the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and the Greater Antilles' adjacent waters, through early in the
weekend.

$$
mt
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