[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
600 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Hanna is centered near 27.0N 95.8W at 25/0900 UTC,
or 100 nm ESE of Corpus Christi Texas moving W at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. A recent
observation from a buoy in the most active quadrant of Hanna
indicated seas are reaching 22 ft. Hanna will continue to
intensify and will reach minimal hurricane strength before making
landfall on the coast of Texas this afternoon. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 10.1N 58.7W at 25/0900
UTC or 160 nm E of Trinidad moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Gonzalo is a fairly compact storm, and
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed
within 45 nm of the center. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An active Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from
20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave is
forecast to move westward, through the tropical Atlantic Ocean,
during the next several days. Some gradual development of this
system is possible early net week, in the western tropical
Atlantic Ocean. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
active along and west of the wave axis, and south of the monsoon
trough axis, from 08N to 11N between 28W and 35W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 43W and 48W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the Southern Bahamas, and over the south
central Caribbean south of 14N between 74W and 77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 14N17W to 09N50W. Convection is described above
in section on tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Outside of the immediate impact area of TS Hanna, generally
moderate SE winds persist across the Gulf. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
north of 26N and west of 90W, in mixed swell related to Hanna.
Elsewhere, seas are 3 to 5 ft, except lower in the far southwest
Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted
elsewhere outside of the immediate area of Hanna in the northwest
Gulf.

Hanna will make landfall on South Texas later today, then move
southwest over Mexico and weaken. This will allow winds and seas
to build slightly over the west central and southwest Gulf into
Mon. Meanwhile, a ridge will build westward across the northern
Gulf in the wake of Hanna through the early part of the week.
This pattern will support gentle to moderate east to southeast
flow over most areas by mid week, with pulses of fresh winds
mainly at night off western Yucatan due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the central Caribbean, and
anticyclonic outflow, associated with Tropical Storm Hanna in the
Gulf of Mexico, covers the NW part of the basin. Deep-layer
clouds and scattered showers are evident south of Cuba and west
of Jamaica, from 15N to 22N between 77W and 83W, enhanced by the
tropical wave mentioned previously along 75W/76W. The leading edge
of clouds and showers associated with Tropical Storm Gonzalo is
reaching the southern Windward Islands, Trinidad and Tobago. Deep
convection associated with the eastward extension of the monsoon
trough from the Pacific Ocean into Colombia is affecting the SW
Caribbean, south of 14N between 74W and 82W.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo near 10.1N 58.7W 1009 mb at 5 AM EDT
moving W at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt.
Gonzalo will move to 10.7N 61.4W this afternoon, weaken to a
tropical depression near 11.5N 65.3W Sun morning, 12.1N 69.4W Sun
afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is expected to weaken as it reaches the
eastern Caribbean, and open up into a trough north of Venezuela.
Enhanced winds and seas are expected north of 12N as the remnant
trough moves across the basin through Tue. A strong tropical wave
is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles on Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed approaching the southern Bahamas along
28N71W to 23N73W. Clouds and showers associated with the trough,
and northern part of the tropical wave mentioned previously along
75W/76W, is noted from 20N to 28N between 71W and 78W, with the
strongest showers and tstms located between the Bahamas and Cuba.
A broad ridge of high pressure, anticyclonic wind flow and mostly
fair weather span the Atlantic Ocean, north of 24N northward and
east of 65W.

The ridge will dominate the forecast area for several more days,
supporting fresh to occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and
the Windward Passage at night, through Sunday. The pressure gradient
between the Atlantic ridge and T.S. Gonzalo, approaching Trinidad,
will support fresh to locally strong easterly winds E of 65W
through tonight. A strong tropical wave is expected to approach
the Lesser Antilles on Wed.

$$
EC/DM
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