[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250922
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
833 UTC Sat Jul 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Hanna is centered near 27.0N 95.8W at 25/0900 UTC,
or 100 nm ESE of Corpus Christi Texas moving W at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. A recent
observation from a buoy in the most active quadrant of Hanna
indicated seas are reaching 22 ft. Hanna will continue to
intensify and will reach minimal hurricane strength before making
landfall on the coast of Texas this afternoon. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml
for more details.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 10.1N 58.7W at 25/0900
UTC or 160 nm E of Trinidad moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Gonzalo is a fairly compact storm, and
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed
within 45 nm of the center. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An active Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from
20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave is
forecast to move westward, through the tropical Atlantic Ocean,
during the next several days. Some gradual development of this
system is possible early net week, in the western tropical
Atlantic Ocean. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
active along and west of the wave axis, and south of the monsoon
trough axis, from 08N to 11N between 28W and 35W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 43W and 48W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the Southern Bahamas, and over the south
central Caribbean south of 14N between 74W and 77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 14N17W to 09N50W. Convection is described above
in section on tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Outside of the immediate impact area of TS Hanna, generally
moderate SE winds persist across the Gulf. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
north of 26N and west of 90W, in mixed swell related to Hanna.
Elsewhere, seas are 3 to 5 ft, except lower in the far southwest
Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted
elsewhere outside of the immediate area of Hanna in the northwest
Gulf.

Hanna will make landfall on South Texas later today, then move
southwest over Mexico and weaken. This will allow winds and seas
to build slightly over the west central and southwest Gulf into
Mon. Meanwhile, a ridge will build westward across the northern
Gulf in the wake of Hanna through the early part of the week.
This pattern will support gentle to moderate east to southeast
flow over most areas by mid week, with pulses of fresh winds
mainly at night off western Yucatan due to local effects.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Cyclonic wind flow, at 500 mb and at 700 mb in the GFS model,
covers the Caribbean Sea from Jamaica westward. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is from
16N northward from Jamaica westward.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from 74W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from
06N to 13N between 72W and 76W, in parts of Colombia and
Venezuela, and in the coastal waters of the Caribbean Sea. A
Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/75W, from 22N
southward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 16N southward
from 76W westward, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo near 10.0N 57.1W 1009 mb at
11 PM EDT moving W at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts
45 kt. Gonzalo will move to 10.4N 59.4W Sat morning; 11.3N 62.6W
Sat evening; weaken to a tropical depression near 12.2N 66.0W Sun
morning; 12.7N 69.7W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 28N68W 22N72W. Precipitation: isolated
to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is from 20N
northward from 65W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow and fair weather span the
Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward from 65W eastward.

A ridge will dominate the forecast area, supporting fresh to
occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and the Windward
Passage, at night, through Sunday. The pressure gradient,
between the Atlantic Ocean ridge and T.S. Gonzalo currently
located to the E of the Windward Islands, will result in fresh
to locally strong easterly winds E of 65W, through at least
Saturday night.

$$
Christensen
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