[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm HANNA, at 25/0600 UTC, is in the
Gulf of Mexico, near 27.0N 95.3W. HANNA is about 122 nm/225 km
to the ESE of Corpus Christi in Texas, and about 113 nm/215 km
to the ENE of Port Mansfield in Texas. HANNA is moving toward
the W, or 270 degrees, 7 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 991 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55
knots with gusts to 65 knots. HANNA is expected to make
landfall, as a hurricane, tomorrow, in southern Texas.
Additional strengthening is forecast. HANNA is expected to
become a hurricane, before the cyclone makes landfall on
Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after HANNA moves inland.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally
strong is elsewhere, from 21N northward.
HAZARDS TO THE PUBLIC:
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The deepest water will
occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the
landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and it may
vary greatly over short distances.  Please read the advisories
and bulletins that are issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office, for information that is specific to
your area. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area
on Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin in the warning area by Saturday morning. HANNA is expected
to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals
of 15 inches through Sunday night in south Texas, and into the
Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas.
It is possible that this rain may result in life-threatening
flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor
to moderate river flooding in south Texas. 3 to 5 inches of rain
are expected along the upper Texas and the Louisiana coasts.
Swells that are generated by HANNA are expected to increase, and
to affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next
couple of days. It is likely for these swells to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
advisories and bulletins from your local weather office. A brief
tornado or two will be possible across parts of the Texas coast,
beginning on Saturday morning. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm GONZALO, at 25/0600 UTC, is in the
Atlantic Ocean, near 10.0N 57.8W. GONZALO is about 210 nm/390 km
to the E of Trinidad. GONZALO is moving W, or 270 degrees, 15
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45
knots. GONZALO is forecast to bring gusty winds and heavy rain
to parts of the southern Windward Islands beginning later today
on Saturday. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is
within 75 nm of the center in the W quadrant. Little change in
strength is expected before GONZALO  reaches the southern
Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after GONZALO moves
through the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is forecast to
dissipate by Sunday night or Monday. HAZARDS TO THE PUBLIC:
Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of the Tropical
Storm Warning area beginning on Saturday. GONZALO is expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, and isolated
maximum amounts of 5 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands
and Trinidad and Tobago through Sunday night. GONZALO also is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in
northeastern Venezuela. It is possible that the rainfall in
Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago may lead
to areas of flash flooding. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
This wave is forecast to move westward, through the tropical
Atlantic Ocean, during the next several days, Some gradual
development of this system is possible early net week, in the
western tropical Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: nearby
precipitation is part of the monsoon trough precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 24N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N to 10N between
49W and 52W. T.S. GONZALO is about 800 nm to the west of the
43W/44W tropical wave. Other nearby precipitation is part of the
monsoon trough precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. High pressure is
building to the north of the tropical wave. The steering flow
has strengthened. The forward motion of the tropical wave has
increased. The new speed is comparatively much faster than the
average forward speed of tropical waves, which normally is 10 to
15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate and isolated
strong is from 17N to 21N between 61W and 66W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/75W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N to 21N between
the Mona Passage and the Windward Passage.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W/89W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. No significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 14N17W, to 13N20W, to 13N30W, and to 12N38W.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong
in clusters is within 330 nm on the southern side of the monsoon
trough between 22W and 34W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is elsewhere from 15N southward from 55W eastward. A tropical
wave is along  36W from 21N southward. T.S. GONZALO is about 825
nm to the west of the 36W tropical wave.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Hanna near 27.1N 94.8W 992 mb at 11
PM EDT moving W at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65
kt. Hanna will strengthen to a hurricane near 27.1N 96.1W Sat
morning; Hanna will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm
near 27.0N 97.7W Sat evening; inland to 26.6N 99.3W Sun morning;
and then weaken rapidly over land Sun and Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Cyclonic wind flow, at 500 mb and at 700 mb in the GFS model,
covers the Caribbean Sea from Jamaica westward. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is from
16N northward from Jamaica westward.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from 74W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from
06N to 13N between 72W and 76W, in parts of Colombia and
Venezuela, and in the coastal waters of the Caribbean Sea. A
Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/75W, from 22N
southward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 16N southward
from 76W westward, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo near 10.0N 57.1W 1009 mb at
11 PM EDT moving W at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts
45 kt. Gonzalo will move to 10.4N 59.4W Sat morning; 11.3N 62.6W
Sat evening; weaken to a tropical depression near 12.2N 66.0W Sun
morning; 12.7N 69.7W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 28N68W 22N72W. Precipitation: isolated
to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is from 20N
northward from 65W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow and fair weather span the
Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward from 65W eastward.

A ridge will dominate the forecast area, supporting fresh to
occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and the Windward
Passage, at night, through Sunday. The pressure gradient,
between the Atlantic Ocean ridge and T.S. Gonzalo currently
located to the E of the Windward Islands, will result in fresh
to locally strong easterly winds E of 65W, through at least
Saturday night.

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net