[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242155
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
554 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Hanna is centered near 27.3N 94.3W at 24/2100 UTC
or 170 nm E of Corpus Christi Texas moving W at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is observed north of 24N and west of 89W. Seas
in the area of the storm have increased to 13 to 17 ft, mainly in
the east semicircle. Hanna is expected to continue moving west
through the day Sat, and make landfall along the south-central
coast of Texas Sat afternoon or early evening. Strengthening is
forecast, and Hanna may become a hurricane before landfall. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 10.0N 55.6W at 24/2100
UTC or 340 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving W at 16
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 07N-12N
between 51W-59W. Seas have increased to 20 ft within 30 to 60 nm
of the center. Gonzalo is forecast to move west to west-northwest
through the weekend, and cross the the Windward Islands. Some
slight strengthening is likely over the next day or so, before
Gonzalo meets dry air and unfavorable conditions in the Carribbean
and it begins to weaken. Gonzalo is forecast to weaken to a
tropical depression by Mon and dissipate Tue. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located in the vicinity of the Cabo Verde
Islands along 22N from 03N to 18N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted with this wave from 05N-
16N between 20W and 31W. This wave is forecast to move west
through the tropical Atlantic for the next several days, and some
gradual development of this system is possible early net week
over the western tropical Atlantic.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 43W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 04N-13N between 36W-46W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 73W from Hispaniola to
Colombia. Dry air over the Caribbean is precluding any significant
convection with this wave.

A tropical wave previously the the far western Caribbean has moved
W into Central America and the eastern Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa from 19N17W to
11N37W. The convection in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is
related to the tropical wave described in the section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features above for details on T.S. Hanna.

Outside of the immediate area of TS Hanna, moderate to fresh SE
winds are noted across the Gulf, with 4 to 6 ft seas.  No
significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed beyond the
ongoing activity related to Hanna.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will build starting late Sat
east to west from roughly Tampa, Florida to South Texas in the
wake of Hanna. Winds and seas will diminish accordingly into
early next week, although fresh evening winds are possible off
Yucatan due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the sections above for details on T.S. Gonzalo and the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

Moderate to fresh trade winds persist the basin through early next
week, before increasing to strong for much of the Central
Caribbean for the middle of next week. Seas will generally be in
the 5 to 7 ft range.  Scattered moderate convection prevails
across portions of the northwest Caribbean mainly north of 17N
and west of 78W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on T.S. Gonzalo and the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

High pressure extends across much of the Atlantic just north of
the waters, and the gradient between this ridge and the monsoon
trough and tropical waves will continue to support moderate to
fresh trades from 10N and 25N well into next week, with seas of 5
to 7 ft.

$$
KONARIK
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