[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm GONZALO, at 23/0300 UTC, is in the
Atlantic Ocean, near 9.9N 45.9W. GONZALO is about 910 nm/1685 km
to the E of the Southern Windward Islands. GONZALO is moving W,
or 270 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 998 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with
gusts to 60 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
is within 90 nm of the center in the W quadrant. More
strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
GONZALO is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical
storm-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles/55 km from the
center. GONZALO is expected to move near or over the southern
Windward Islands this weekend. It is possible that GONZALO may
bring direct impacts from winds and heavy rainfall. Interests in
the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
GONZALO. It is too soon to determine the magnitude and the
timing of those impacts. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

The center of Tropical Depression EIGHT, at 23/0600 UTC, is in
the Gulf of Mexico, near 25.9N 88.8W. T.D. EIGHT is moving
toward the WNW, or 285 degrees, 5 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 27N southward from 92W
eastward. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND: Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by late Friday. The depression is
expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain. Isolated maximum
totals of 6 inches are possible along the coast of the Gulf of
Mexico, from Louisiana to the Lower Texas coast, and inland
through south central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Swells
generated by the depression are expected to increase, and affect
much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, in a day or two. It is
likely that these swells may cause life- threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult advisories and bulletins
from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: any
nearby precipitation is related to the monsoon trough
precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. High pressure is
building to the north of the tropical wave. The steering flow
has strengthened. The forward motion of the tropical wave has
increased. The new speed is comparatively much faster than the
average forward speed of tropical waves, which normally is 10 to
15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong is within 250 nm to the north of the
northernmost point of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate is
within 330 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 14N to 18N.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in Guyana and
Suriname from 02N to 06N between 55W and 61W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 390 nm to the
west of the tropical wave, mostly in Venezuela, and in parts of
Colombia also.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas from 16N
in the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Bahamas between the Mona
Passage and 80W.

A tropical wave is moving through the SW Gulf of Mexico, along
93W/94W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong
covers the interior/land areas, from SW Guatemala to the
northern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula between the Yucatan
Peninsula and 97W, including in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 17N16W, to 15N20W to 11N30W to 09N36W and
10N39W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 30 nm to 60 nm
on either side of the monsoon trough between 35W and 40W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from the
monsoon trough southward from 40W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Eight near 25.9N 88.2W 1009 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving WNW at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt.
Eight will move to 26.3N 89.3W Thu morning, 27.0N 90.8W Thu
evening; strengthen to a tropical storm near 27.9N 92.4W Fri
morning; 28.2N 94.0W Fri evening; 28.5N 95.3W Sat morning; and
inland to 28.7N 96.8W Sat evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia beyond
southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 14N southward from 75W westward, in the SW corner
of the Caribbean Sea.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo near 9.9N 45.9W 998 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt.
Gonzalo will move to 10.0N 47.6W Thu morning; strengthen to a
hurricane near 10.2N 50.0W Thu evening; 10.6N 52.7W Fri morning;
11.2N 55.5W Fri evening; 11.8N 58.6W Sat morning; and weaken to
a tropical storm near 12.6N 61.8W Sat evening. Gonzalo will
change little in intensity as it moves to the west through Sun
afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow and fair weather span the
Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward from 80W eastward.

A ridge to the north of the area will support pulses of fresh to
locally strong winds off Hispaniola, and near the entrance to
the Windward Passage, for the next several nights. The wind
speeds and the sea heights will increase E of 65W, toward the
end of the week, as high pressure builds across the western
Atlantic Ocean.

$$
mt
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