[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 9.9N 45.0W at 22/2100
UTC or 960 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving W at 12
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N
between 43W and 46W. Gonzalo is forecast to continue moving
west, at a gradually faster pace, through the end of the week,
before it may begin to curve to the WNW. On this track, the
system will move into the offshore forecast zones east of the
Windward Islands Friday, and enter the eastern Caribbean
Saturday. Strengthening is forecast, and Gonzalo is liekly to
become a hurricane by Thu afternoon. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Low pressure has developed in the Central Gulf of Mexico near
25N89W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted over the eastern Gulf south of 22N extending along the
Yucatan Channel in association to this system. Conditions are
favorable to this low to develop further, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the next day or two as the
system moves WNW at 9 kt. This low has a high chance of tropical
formation within the next two to five days. Please refer to the
latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for further information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 09N between 22W and 31W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W, from 18N southward.
With high pressure building north of the tropical wave, the
steering flow has strengthened. This has increased the forward
motion of the tropical wave, which is now moving westward at 20
to 25 knots.
This is much faster than the average forward speed of tropical
waves, which is around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm on the east side of the
wave axis from 06N to 09N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, from 18N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W, from 22N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 60 nm of the wave axis from 16N to 22N.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 092N30W to 10N37W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N52W to 07N58W. Aside from convection noted
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 300 nm south of the monsoon trough
between 28W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO

An area of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico is
gradually becoming better defined as indicated by surface
observations, satellite imagery and aircraft reconaissance data.
A middle-level inverted trough support this low with upper-level
diffluence supporting scattered moderate convection S of 28N E
of 91W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next day or so as it moves west-northwestward
at about 9 kt.

Surface observations show fresh to locally strong SE winds
already over portions of the NE gulf while model guidance
indicate the continuation of at least fresh SE winds for the
eastern half of the basin through Sat. Scattered to numerous
heavy showers are forecast for most of the gulf through the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Heavy showers and tstms are across Cuba and adjacent waters
being supported by a broad area of low pressure located in the
central Gulf of Mexico.

With the Bermuda and Azores high in place over the central
Atlantic extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean waters,
moderate to fresh winds will prevail for the eastern and central
basin. These winds will be fresh to strong in the south-central
Caribbean, specifically along the coast and adjacent waters of
Colombia, due to lower pressure and local terrain effects.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is near 9.9N 45.0W 1000 mb at 5 PM EDT
moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt.
Gonzalo will move to 10.0N 46.8W Thu morning, strengthen to a
hurricane near 10.1N 49.2W Thu afternoon, 10.3N 51.8W Fri
morning, 10.8N 54.6W Fri afternoon, 11.3N 57.6W Sat morning, and
weaken to a tropical storm near 12.1N 60.8W Sat afternoon.
Gonzalo will change little in intensity as it moves to the west
through Sun afternoon. The center of Gonzalo would approach the
Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday.

See Special Features section above for more information on
Tropical Storm Gonzalo. Otherwise, see the tropical waves
section for information on showers and tstms over Hispaniola and
adjacent waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and tstms prevail over the Bahamas as well as
Turks and Caicos associated with a broad area of low pressure in
the Gulf of Mexico. The remainder basin N of 20N is under the
influence of the Azores and Bermuda high, which is supporting
fair weather.

The extension of the Bermuda and Azores high into the SW
Atlantic waters will support pulses of fresh to locally strong
winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward
Passage for the next several nights. Winds and seas will
increase E of 65W toward the end of the week as high pressure
builds across the western Atlantic.

$$
KONARIK/RAMOS
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