[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
in association with a low pressure system located near 08.5N38W.
The low has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during
the next 48 hours while it moves westward at 10 kt.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 38W from 02N-19N, moving west
at 5-10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure, mentioned above, is along the
wave axis near 08.5N38W, where the wave insects with the monsoon
trough axis. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 06N-11N between 36W-41W.

The tropical wave that was analyzed along 46W at 19/1800 UTC has
been relocated farther west to 52W based on satellite imagery,
TPW imagery and wave diagnostic data. The tropical wave is
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
along and within 120 nm E of the wave axis from 04N-09N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is inland over E Venezuela. Scattered showers are in the
vicinity of Trinidad.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 79/80W from Panama to the
Florida Straits, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 16N-26N between 75W-82W,
including Jamaica, Cuba and the Old Bahama Channel. There is
a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48
hours as the northern portion of the wave moves west-northwest
across the Gulf of Mexico. The southern portion of the wave is
producing scattered moderate to strong convection in the far
SW Caribbean from the N coast of Panama to 11N between 79W-81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W
to 14N25W to a 1009 mb low near 08.5N38W. The ITCZ extends from
08N41W to 07N51W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from
08N54W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves described above, scattered showers are noted near
both boundaries. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection
is near the coast of Africa from 11N-18N, east of 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO

A surface trough is over the NW Gulf of Mexico with axis
extending from 29N94W to 25N97W. Scattered moderate showers are
from 27.5N-30N between 91W-94.5W, including over the coast
between south-central Louisiana and Galveston Bay. Moderate to
fresh E-SE winds are south of the Louisiana coast. As of 21/0500
UTC, the trough has reached the coast of Texas. Therefore,
tropical cyclone development is not expected. Locally heavy
rainfall could still occur over southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana during the next day or two.

Showers and tstorms are increasing over the Florida Straits and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico in association with a tropical wave
that is currently along 79/80W. This wave is forecast to move
west-northwest through the eastern Gulf today, central Gulf Wed,
then the NW Gulf late in the week. This system has a low chance
of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.
Regardless of development, increasing winds and seas are
possible by midweek in association with this system.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper-level troughing over the NW Caribbean Sea is inducing
scattered showers and isolated tstorms from 17N-22N between
83W-87W. Aside from these showers and the convection mentioned
above in the Tropical Waves section, the air is drier over the
remainder of the Caribbean. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh
trades over the central Caribbean between 68W-75W, with strong
trades in the south-central Caribbean, south of 15N between 69W-
73W.Moderate trades cover the eastern Caribbean. Gentle winds
are over the western Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and
low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to locally strong
trade winds over the south-central Caribbean this week.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will persist across
the region for the next several days. Expect increasing winds
and seas over the NE Caribbean toward the end of the week as
high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tropical wave along 79/80W mentioned above is producing
scattered moderate convection south of 26N, between 76W and the
Florida Straits. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trade winds
across the area from 20N-25.5N between 68W and the Florida
Straits. Strong E winds cover the area from the N coast of
Hispaniola to the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Fresh winds will prevail over the waters S of 25N through today
as the northern extent of a tropical wave moves westward and
exits the region. A ridge north of the area will support pulses
of fresh to locally strong winds off Hispaniola and near the
entrance to the Windward Passage for the next several nights.
Winds and seas will increase E of 65W toward the end of the week
as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

In the NE Atlantic, strong NE winds prevail from 22N-29N, east of
27W, with locally near gale winds between the Canary Islands.

$$
Hagen
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