[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202254
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
654 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 38W from 02N-19N, moving west
at 10-15 kt. Low pressure associated with this wave is along the
monsoon trough at 08N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 34W and 41W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W from from 02N-17N, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
03N to 07N between 43W and 47W.

The axis of a tropical wave is crossing the Lesser Antilles along
62W from Venezuela to 22N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
thunderstorms are located along the wave axis S of 14N.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 80W from Panama to the
Florida Straits, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 17N to 25N between 72W
and 82W, especially in and near Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti. This
wave has a low potential of tropical cyclone formation over the
next couple of days when it's northern portion enters the Gulf of
Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W to
12N25W to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 06N46W to 08N56W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical waves described above,
scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm either side of
both boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO

Weak low pressure of 1012 mb has formed in the NW Gulf near
28N94W, with a surface trough extending southward from it to near
23N93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring within
about 120 nm of this low. There is a low chance of tropical
development with this system before it moves inland over Texas
tonight or Tue. Although there is some gusty winds associated with
the thunderstorms, overall gentle to moderate winds prevail across
all of the Gulf.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the far SE Gulf of Mexico
and Florida Straits are associated with the tropical wave
described above. This wave is forecast to move west-northwest
through the eastern Gulf Tue, central Gulf Wed, then the NW Gulf
Thu. There is a low risk of tropical cyclone formation with this
feature through late Wed. Regardless of development, increasing
winds and seas are possible by midweek in association with this
system.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the section above for information on the tropical wave in the
entering the western Caribbean and for the tropical wave crossing
the Windward and Leeward Islands this evening.

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and
low pressure over Colombia will keep fresh to strong winds in
place in the south central Caribbean into the weekend, with
moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere. Expect increasing winds
and seas E of 65W Tue night through Fri night as high pressure
builds across the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave producing showers and thunderstorms over portions of
the Bahamas this evening.

High pressure 1022 mb centered just east of Bermuda near 32N62W
extends southward, causing moderate to fresh east winds from the
Greater Antilles to about 25N. To the east, a surface trough
extends from 32N54W to 22N60W, and other from 32N42N to 25N52W.
Both of these troughs are weakening, and shower activity
previously associated with them has diminished.

A ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to locally
strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward
Passage for the next several nights. Expect freshening winds over
the waters S of 25N through Tue as the northern extend of a
tropical wave moves westward across the region. Winds and seas
will increase E of 65W toward the end of the week as high pressure
builds across the western Atlantic.

$$
KONARIK
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