[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 110234
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Satellite and radar data indicate that Fay is no longer generating
organized deep convection as the center moves into northern New
Jersey.  A combination of radar, aircraft, buoy, and ship data show
that 30-35 kt winds are occurring over the water south of central
and western long Island, and based on this the initial intensity is
reduced to 35 kt.  The central pressure of 1001 mb is based on
surface observations.

Barring the return of convection, Fay should continue to weaken and
become post-tropical on Saturday.  After that, the system is
expected to dissipate on Sunday as it merges with a frontal system
over southeastern Canada.  The new intensity forecast has only
minor tweaks from the previous forecast.

The initial motion is now northward or 005 degrees at 15 kt.  The
track forecast philosophy is unchanged, as Fay will be steered
generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation
between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an
approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes.  The
storm is moving a little to the left of the previous forecast, so
the new forecast is nudged to the left due mainly to the initial
position and motion.  The new forecast lies close to the consensus
models.

Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the
center of Fay, as the heaviest rain and strongest winds are now
occurring well away from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from eastern Pennsylvania, northeast New Jersey
and across southeast New York, into portions of New England may
result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor
drainage.  Isolated minor flooding is possible; however, widespread
river flooding is not expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected for several more hours
over portions of coastal New York and Connecticut, including most
of Long Island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 41.0N  74.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  11/1200Z 43.6N  73.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  12/0000Z 47.5N  71.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/1200Z 51.1N  68.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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