[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 102046
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Fay's structure is looking less tropical this afternoon. While the
central circulation is decidedly warm core, it is lacking deep
convection and consists entirely of low to mid-level clouds. The
deepest convection is found in cloud bands located well east and
southeast of the center. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt, with
the strongest winds found in a convective band northeast of the
center as seen in velocity data from the KOKX WSR-88D. The last fix
from the earlier aircraft mission provided a central pressure
estimate of 998 mb.

Gradual weakening should occur from here on as the cyclone begins to
interact more with land, however stronger winds are expected to
persist over water even after the center moves inland tonight. Fay
is shown as a 35-kt tropical storm inland at 12 hours, but those
winds are expected to be over water well southeast of the center by
that time. On Saturday, Fay should weaken as a post-tropical cyclone
and dissipate in 36 to 48 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 010/12 kt. The track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged, as Fay will be steered generally
northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a
mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching
shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. The new NHC track
forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope.

Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the
center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to
affect areas well away from the cyclone's center.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania
northeast across New Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New
England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas
with poor drainage.  While isolated minor flooding is possible,
widespread river flooding is not expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and
tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts
of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, including Long Island.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 39.5N  74.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...ON THE COAST
 12H  11/0600Z 41.7N  73.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/1800Z 45.7N  72.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/0600Z 49.6N  69.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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