[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT31 KNHC 102046
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...AND LONG ISLAND...
...FAY MAKES LANDFALL JUST NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW
JERSEY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 74.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Great Egg
Inlet, New Jersey, including southern Delaware Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Great Egg Inlet New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island
including Long Island and Long Island Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), satellite imagery indicated that the
center of Tropical Storm Fay has made landfall along the coast of
New Jersey about 10 miles (15 km) north-northeast of Atlantic City,
near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 74.3 West. Fay is moving
toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northward to north-
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight
and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Fay will move
near or over portions of the New Jersey coast this evening and then
move inland over southeastern New York and western New England
tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is expected tonight, especially after
the Fay moves farther inland. Fay is expected to weaken to a
tropical depression by Saturday morning and dissipate on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km),
mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center. A Weatherflow
site at Larchmont Harbor, New York, recently reported a sustained
wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a wind gust of 41 mph (67 km/h). JFK
airport in New York City recently reported a wind gust of 45 mph
(72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the
web at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL:  Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches along and near its track from
northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania northeast across New
Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New England. This rain
could result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with
poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Rapid rises on
small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible, but
widespread river flooding is not expected.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
within the warning through tonight.

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES:  An isolated tornado or two are possible late this
afternoon and evening across coastal areas of New Jersey, southeast
New York, and southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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