[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 101449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.4N 74.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island Delaware to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long
Island and Long Island Sound
* Southern Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 38.4 North, longitude 74.5 West. Fay is moving toward the
north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward
motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move
near the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon and evening and move
inland over the mid-Atlantic and northeast United States tonight and
Saturday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is forecast today while the center remains over water. Weakening
should begin after the center moves inland, and Fay is expected to
weaken to a tropical depression by early Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow station at Lewes, Delaware, recently
reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of
50 mph (80 km/h). A National Ocean Service observing site at Lewes
recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a wind
gust of 49 mph (79 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL:  Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from Delaware
northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York,
and southern New England. The rain may result in flash flooding and
urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest
amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this
time.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
within the warning area through tonight.

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible today across coastal
areas of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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