[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 101159
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Special Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DELAWARE
COASTLINE AS HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.6N 74.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward to Fenwick
Island Delaware, including southern Delaware Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island Delaware to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long
Island and Long Island Sound
* Southern Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 37.6 North, longitude 74.7 West. Fay is moving
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northward to north-
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is
forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast today and move inland
over the mid-Atlantic or the northeast United States late tonight
or on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today and tonight while the
center remains over water. Weakening should begin after the center
moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow station at Lewes, Delaware recently
reported a sustained wind of 33 mph (54 km/h) and a wind gust of 39
mph (63 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is
999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL:  Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower
Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey,
eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England.
These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts
occur.  Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning in the next few hours and spread northward
through the warning area tonight.

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of
New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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