[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 101200
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Special Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Surface observations and radar data from the KDOX WSR-88D radar
indicate that there is now an area of 34-kt winds extending north
and northwest of the center of Fay. These winds will be approaching
the coast of Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay in the next few
hours, and as a result the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended
southward to Fenwick Island, Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay.

No changes were made to the previous track or intensity forecasts,
however 34-kt wind radii were introduced in the northwest quadrant
at the initial time and at the 12-h forecast. No other changes
were made to the wind radii analyses or forecasts.

Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 800
AM EDT (1200 UTC) intermediate advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated
maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland
Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern
Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These
rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of Delaware, New
Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1200Z 37.6N  74.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 38.9N  74.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 41.5N  73.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  11/1800Z 45.2N  72.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  12/0600Z 48.6N  70.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  12/1800Z 51.8N  68.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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