[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 100842
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay early this
morning found that the storm had strengthened slightly, with
maximum SFMR-observed surface winds near 45 kt.  Additionally, the
minimum central pressure had fallen a few mb since yesterday.
Since the center of the cyclone is exposed on the southwest side of
the main area of deep convection, and southwesterly shear over the
system is forecast to persist, little if any additional
strengthening is anticipated before landfall.  Weakening should
commence after the center moves inland in 12-24 hours.  The official
intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest model
consensus aids.

Center fixes from the Air Force plane show that the storm continues
moving northward at a slightly faster pace, or 360/9 kt.  During
the next couple of days, Fay should move between a mid-level ridge
over the western Atlantic and a short-wave trough dropping into the
Ohio Valley region.  There has been little change to the official
track forecast, which remains close to the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus tracks.

Key Messages:

1. Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated
maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland
Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern
Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These
rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.

2. Tropical storm conditionsAÌ‚Â are expected along portions of the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey,
New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 37.4N  74.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 38.9N  74.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 41.5N  73.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  11/1800Z 45.2N  72.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  12/0600Z 48.6N  70.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  12/1800Z 51.8N  68.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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