[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092152
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
552 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 35.5N 74.9W at 09/2100 UTC
or 30 nm ENE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving N at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Some slight strengthening
is forecast tonight and Friday. Weakening should begin after the
center moves inland on Saturday. Fay is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across the mid-Atlantic United States into SE New York
and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding
where the heaviest amounts occur.

The next update will occur by 8 PM EDT this evening.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tilted tropical wave is from 19N43W to 02N49W just NE of the
coast of Brazil, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is surrounded
by dry Saharan air and dust, however scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is still noted from 09N-14N between 42W
and 49W, with scattered moderate convection noted from 07N-09N
between 48W-56W, and from 08N-11N between 57W-59W.

A tropical wave is along 70W/71W from the S central Dominican
Republic to near the A-B-C Islands and across western Venezuela
and eastern Colombia moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection over waters is noted with this wave, with scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection noted over eastern
Colombia.

A tropical wave is along 84W in the western Caribbean from near
the Cayman Islands to near the border of Nicaragua/Honduras to
near the border of Costa Rica/Panama continuing into the far E
tropical Pacific, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 11N-19N between 80W-87W.

A tropical wave is along 96W exiting the western Bay of Campeche
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with
the departing wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of The Guinea
and Guinea-Bissau near 13N17W to 10N29W. The ITCZ extends from
10N29W to 10N45W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N49W to
the coast of French Guiana near 06N53W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-10N between 32W-40W,

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high is centered over the E Gulf of Mexico near 27N88W.
A weak surface trough is analyzed along the western coast of the
Yucatan peninsula. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers
the Gulf of Mexico, with an upper level ridge residing above the
Gulf. Gentle winds are noted in the central Gulf near the high,
with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the basin.
Seas are mainly 3 ft or less E of 90W, and 4-6 ft W of 90W. Seas
are 7-10 ft in the S central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere
except 3 ft or less in the NW caribbean.

High pressure over the central Gulf will shift westward through
Sun as a trough develops over Florida. The trough will lift to the
NE through the early part of next week. This pattern will
maintain generally moderate winds and slight seas through the
forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See the tropical waves
section above for more details.

Otherwise, high pressure ridging is just N-NE of the basin. Fresh
to strong trades are noted in the S-central Caribbean including
in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are noted
elsewhere, except gentle S of 11N and near the Gulf of Honduras.
Seas are 7-10 ft where the strongest winds are, and 4-7 ft
elsewhere except 3 ft or less near the Gulf of Honduras.

The gradient between high pressure centered N of the area and
lower pressure toward the equator will continue to produce fresh
tradewinds across much of the Caribbean through the weekend, with
strong to even near gale conditions north of Colombia and
Venezuela. Winds and seas over the south central Caribbean will
diminish slightly Sun and Mon as another strong tropical wave
moves through the region, but will increase again by mid week in
the wake of the tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
Tropical Storm Fay.

A weak low-level trough extending from near Tropical Storm Fay is
inducing several bands of moderate to strong convection N of the
Bahamas and E-SE of the trough. Moderate to fresh SE-S flow are W
of 65W, except light to gentle W of the Bahamas and just E of
Florida. Seas are 4-7 Ft W of 65W, except 3 ft or less W of the
Bahamas. Farther E, an upper level trough is producing scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection from 22N-30N between 66W-
74W. Another low-level trough that was extending SW to around
31N52W to 28N62W and producing scattered moderate convection has
dissipated. A 1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near
34N36W. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted N of 25N and E of
65W, with moderate to locally fresh trades S of 25N and E of 65W.
Seas are mainly 4-7 ft E of 65W, locally to 8 ft.

Winds will increase N of the Bahamas Sat and Sun as a trough
approaches from the Gulf coast states into Florida, but will
diminish into mid week as the trough weakens and lifts to the
NE. Fresh trade winds will persist S of the ridge, mainly S of
22N.

$$
Lewitsky
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