[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Surface observations, satellite data, and radar data indicate
that an area of low pressure, that is about 60 nm to the east
of Wilmington in North Carolina, gradually is becoming better
defined. The associated rain showers and thunderstorms still are
disorganized. The low pressure center is expected to move NE or
NNE, near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks
later today, and then along the mid-Atlantic coast tonight and
Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development. It is likely that a tropical cyclone or
subtropical cyclone may form later today or tonight. The system
is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that may cause
some flash flooding in parts of eastern North Carolina, the
coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next
few days. Gusty winds also are possible along the North Carolina
Outer Banks today, and along the mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts Friday and Saturday. Please monitor the progress
of this system, and refer to bulletins, and watches and warnings
from your local National Weather Service office. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system later today, if necessary. The chance of formation
into a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is high.
Please read the Tropical Weather Outlook, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W from 01N to
18N,moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is surrounded by dry
Saharan air and dust, but scattered moderate convection is
near the ITCZ from 08N-11N between 40W-50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W from E Hispaniola to
NW Venezuela, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W from 20N through
Panama to 03N moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 11N-18N between 79W-85W to include E Honduras
and E Nicaragua.

A tropical wave is along 94W in the Bay of Campeche, moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. Only scattered showers are occurring in the Bay
of Campeche in association with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N28W. The ITCZ extends from
09N28W to 11N42W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near
10N46W and continues to the coast of French Guiana at 06N53W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 32W and
39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high is centered over the E Gulf of Mexico near 26N88W.
Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico,
with an upper level ridge residing above the Gulf.

High pressure will dominate Gulf weather into early next week. A
low pressure trough extending into the far eastern parts of the
Gulf will move north and east of the area by Friday. Moderate to
fresh return southerly flow to the east of the high pressure
center will impact the western Gulf into the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. The wave
over the SW Caribbean is the main convection producer in the
basin.

The gradient between high pressure centered north of
the area and lower pressure toward the equator will continue to
produce fresh trade winds across much of the Caribbean through
the weekend, with strong to even near gale conditions north of
Colombia and Venezuela. The SW Caribbean tropical wave will move
into central America tonight, accompanied by showers,
thunderstorms, and gusty winds. Another strong tropical wave will
approach the Lesser Antilles Sat and move across the eastern
Caribbean Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on the low
pressure off the coast of North Carolina. A weak low-level
trough extending from this low is inducing several bands of
moderate to strong convection north of the Bahamas and just
east of the Florida Peninsula. Farther east, and upper level
trough is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong
thunderstorms N of 25N between 60W and 70W. Still another
low-level trough extending SW to around 30N47W is producing
scattered moderate showers and a few thunderstorms.
A 1029 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 40N24W.

Over the W Atlantic, southerly winds ahead of a surface trough
along the SE U.S. coast will be fresh to strong N and E of the
Bahamas into early next week. This trough will bring showers
and thunderstorms to nearby waters. High pressure centered
north and east of the area will dominate most of the rest of
the waters.

$$
Formosa
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