[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080806 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Jul 08 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An area of low pressure, that is centered inland in South
Carolina,

continues to produce a large area of disorganized rainshowers
and heavy rain in parts of the southeastern United States. The
low pressure center is expected to move east-northeastward
toward the coast later today. It will turn northeastward near or
just offshore of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states on
Thursday and Friday, where a tropical or subtropical cyclone may
form, if the low pressure center moves over water. The low
pressure center is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall
that may cause flash flooding in parts of the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic U.S. during the next few days. The chance of
formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is
medium. Please read the Tropical Weather Outlook, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/34W from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Saharan air and
an associated low level wind surge have moved well ahead of
this wave, and can be seen from 10N to 22N, across the
Atlantic Ocean to 55W. Precipitation: this wave is moving
through the ITCZ, with its associated precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 20N61W 14N63W 05N64W,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is within 150 nm to the west of the tropical
wave from 05N to 07N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 300 nm to the north of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola, in the Atlantic Ocean.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is in Haiti.
Scattered moderate to strong is within 90 nm on either side of
the monsoon trough, from Costa Rica to the 73W/74W
tropical wave. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is in the coastal plains/the coastal waters of Costa Rica
and Nicaragua. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in
Colombia beyond Costa Rica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from Colombia to
Nicaragua, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. An upper level
inverted trough extends from Nicaragua southward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, near
the northern part of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 12N22W. The ITCZ continues from 12N22W,
to 13N28W, 06N40W, 05N46W, and to 07N57W. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is
within 300 nm on either side of the ITCZ, from 45W eastward, and
within 300 nm to the north of the ITCZ from 45W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge is along 26N/27N, from the lower Texas
Gulf coast to Florida, and into the Atlantic Ocean.
An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
SE corner of the area, and in the southern three-fourths of the
area from 90W westward. An upper level ridge passes through
southern Louisiana, to central Florida, toward the NW part of
the Bahamas.

A surface ridge will remain centered in the Gulf of Mexico
through the weekend, with the high pressure center fluctuating
between the NW and the NE basin. This will allow for the
continuation of moderate to fresh return flow to the west of 90W
and moderate westerly winds in the NE parts of the basin.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the north
central and NE Gulf will shift gradually to the NE of the area
late tonight. Similar activity is forecast for the NE, and parts
of the SE basin on Friday and Saturday, as the tail end of a
frontal system moves across the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 20N61W 14N63W 05N64W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 150 nm to the west
of the tropical wave from 05N to 07N. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the north of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola, in the Atlantic Ocean.

A 700 mb inverted trough extends from the SE Bahamas, through
the Caribbean Sea, to Colombia. The inverted trough
more or less coincides with the 73W/74W tropical wave.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
coastal waters of the Caribbean Sea side of Cuba from 81W
eastward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner
of the Caribbean Sea, from Colombia to Nicaragua, and into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. An upper level inverted trough extends
from Nicaragua southward.

A second tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 22N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is in Haiti.
Scattered moderate to strong is within 90 nm on either side of
the monsoon trough, from Costa Rica to the 73W/74W tropical
wave. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the
coastal plains/the coastal waters of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. A
third tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 19N southward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, near the northern part of the wave.

The surface ridge that is in the W Atlantic Ocean will
strengthen from late Wednesday through Saturday. This will allow
the continuation of fresh to strong tradewinds in the south
central Caribbean Sea, increasing to near gale-force on Thursday
and Friday nights. Strong winds, building seas and very active
weather are expected in the NE Caribbean Sea and the adjacent
Atlantic Ocean, from tonight through Wednesday, as a tropical
wave moves across the area. These conditions will spread into
the central Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. Strong
winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras from Friday
night through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 33N35W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 22N
northward between 23W and 46W. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 20N northward between 20W and 50W.

A frontal boundary is along 36N/37N from 50W westward.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 29N northward from 70W westward. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 29N northward between
40W and 70W.

A tropical wave moving across Puerto Rico and the
adjacent waters will be accompanied by strong winds, building
seas and very active weather tonight, and shift into the SE
Bahamas and the adjacent waters on Wednesday night and Thursday.
A surface ridge will strengthen across the region, from late
Wednesday through Saturday. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
will affect most of the area N of 23N from Wednesday  through
Saturday night. Low pressure in the SE U.S.A. will move NE. It
will approach the coast of the Carolinas from Wednesday through
Thursday. The trough will drag a trough across the northern
Florida offshore waters.

$$
mt
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