[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080003 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
718 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

Updated for Special Features Section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An area of low pressure located inland along the Georgia-South
Carolina border southeast of Augusta, Georgia, continues to produce
a large area of showers and heavy rain over portions of the
southeastern United States. The low is expected to move slowly
eastward overnight before turning east-northeastward on Wednesday.
By Wednesday night and Thursday, the system is forecast to move
generally northeastward near or just offshore the coast of the
Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone could form later this week if the low moves
over the warm waters of the western Atlantic. Regardless of
development, the low is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall
that could cause flash flooding across portions of the southeastern
U.S. during the next couple of days. Please, refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 32W/33W from 01N-19N, moving W at around
10 kt. Saharan air and an associated low level wind surge has
moved well ahead of this wave, and can be seen from 10N to 22N
across the Atlantic to 55W. Associated convection is described
below.

A tropical wave is along 60W/61W from eastern Venezuela to 20N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 12N-18N between 60W-64W.

A tropical wave is along 72W/73W from near the Colombia/Venezuela
border to central Haiti, moving W at around 10 kt. Associated
convection has diminished over the Caribbean Sea with activity now
confined inland over western Venezuela.

A tropical wave is along 83W from near the Panama/Costa Rica
border to near the border of Honduras/Nicaragua to 19N, moving W
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the Gulf
of Honduras from 16N-18N between 85-87W with additional activity
to the S of the area over the far eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 07N35W to 04N48W. The ITCZ extends from 04N48W to the coast of
Brazil near 03N52W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted within 180 nm either side of the axis of the
monsoon trough between 22W and 36W, and within 120 nm N of the
axis between 36W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure area is centered over the eastern Gulf
near 26N85W with a ridge axis extending westward to the lower
Texas coast. Evening satellite and radar imagery indicates fairly
clear weather across the basin, with typical isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Florida peninsula
and SE United Sates. Earlier scatterometer data showed gentle
winds near the high, with moderate to locally fresh return flow
elsewhere.

Surface high pressure will prevail through the weekend with the
center of it fluctuating between the NW and NE basin. This will
allow for the continuation of moderate to fresh return flow west
of 90W and moderate westerly winds across NE portions of the
basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the
NE and portions of the SE basin Fri and Sat as the tail of a
frontal system moves across the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level trough extends from the southern Bahamas
to Panama, while a large mid-upper level anticyclone is noted E
of this trough across the majority of the basin. Earlier
scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh across the central
and eastern Caribbean, except fresh to strong near the NW coast
of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades prevail over the western
Caribbean, except locally fresh near the Gulf of Honduras.
Most of the convection occurring over the basin is described in
the tropical waves section above, however additional scattered
moderate convection is noted in the SE Caribbean from offshore of
Venezuela to across the A-B-C Islands.

Surface ridging N of the basin in the W Atlc will strengthen late
Wed through Sat. This will allow the continuation of fresh to
strong tradewinds in the south-central Caribbean, increasing to
near gale force Thu and Fri nights. Increasing winds, seas and
active weather is expected over the E Caribbean tonight and Wed as
a tropical wave moves across the area. These conditions will
spread into the central Caribbean Wed and Thu. Strong winds will
pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the area of low pressure over the SE United States.

Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted from 27N-30N
between 75W-77W, as well as from 27N-30N between 62W-67W, and N of
30N between 53W-67W. Similar convection is noted from the western
Bahamas to the Straits of Florida, and from Puerto Rico northward
to 21N between 64W-68W. A ridge axis extends from near 32N42W to
near the N coast of Florida. Mainly gentle to moderate flow is
noted N of 27N, with moderate to locally fresh trades S of 27N.
Seas of 2-4 ft are noted N of 27N and W of 65W, with 4-7 ft seas
elsewhere N of 22N. Larger seas of 7-10 ft are noted S of 22N and
E of 65W.

Surface ridging will strengthen across the region late Wed
through Sat. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will affect most of
the area N of 23N Wed through Sat night. Low pressure across the
SE U.S. will move NE and approach the coast of the Carolinas Wed
through Thu, dragging a trough across the northern Florida
offshore waters.

$$
Lewitsky
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