[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070518
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends it axis along 29W from 01N-18N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Saharan dust is noted over much of the eastern
Atlantic, mainly from 13N-22N east of 40W. Due to the associated
dry air, scattered showers are confined to the area south of 10N.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 20N54W to 05N57W, moving W
at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's
axis mainly south of 14N.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 70W from 06N-22N, moving
W at about 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the
southern portion of the wave, affecting Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 23N17W to 13N25W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N33W to 04N51W to 10N52W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ between 30W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored over the
west Atlantic. Scattered showers are noted over the Florida
peninsula and adjacent waters mainly east of 84W. Mainly gentle
to moderate return flow prevails across the Gulf, locally fresh
in the NE Gulf coastal waters, along with 2-4 ft seas except 3
ft or less in the SE Gulf.

Surface ridging will prevail the entire forecast period with a
center of high pressure fluctuating between the NW and NE basin.
This will allow for the continuation of moderate to locally fresh
southerlies across the basin, except for light variable wind in
the vicinity of the high.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the central Caribbean.

A large mid-upper level anticyclone is noted NE of the Virgin
Islands with ridging extending across the majority of the basin
along 15N. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
across the central and eastern Caribbean, except fresh to strong
near the N coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Gentle to moderate trades prevail over the western Caribbean,
except locally fresh to strong near the Gulf of Honduras.

A weak high pressure ridge will persist through Tue night before
reorganizing and strengthening across the region late Wed through
Sat. This will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-
central Caribbean, increasing to near-gale force by the end of
the week. Strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of
Honduras tonight and Fri night. Expect increasing winds, seas
and active weather tonight through Tue associated with a
tropical wave that will cross the Lesser Antilles entering the
eastern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for information on the tropical
waves moving across the basin.

A weak high pressure ridge extends E to W along 29N across the
W Atlantic, anchored by a 1021 mb high near 35N69W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the
western half of the basin, while moderate to fresh winds prevail
south of 24N and east of 50W.

The surface ridge will persist through Tue night, before
reorganizing and strengthening across the region late Wed
through Sat. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will affect most
of the area N of 23N from Wed through Sat night. Low pressure
across the SE U.S. will move NE and approach the coast of the
Carolinas Wed through Thu, dragging a trough across the northern
Florida offshore waters.

$$

ERA
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