[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062232
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard is centered near 42.7N 46.0W at
06/2100 UTC or 390 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving NE at
33 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
Please read the final NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, and
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 27W/28W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Saharan
dust is noted over much of the eastern Atlantic, mainly from 13N-
22N east of 40W. Due to the associated dry air, scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is confined near the monsoon
trough from 04N-08N between 22W-28W.

A tropical wave is near 53W/54W from the Suriname/French Guiana
border to 19N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from from 12N-13N between 50W-55W, and S of
15N between 55W and 60W.

A tropical wave is near 65W from near the east coast Puerto Rico
and the Mona Passage to the N coast of Venezuela, moving little in
the past several hours. Scattered moderate convection is from
11N-15N between 62W-67W, with deep convection also noted across
much of northern Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near the coasts of The Gambia and
Senegal near 13.5N17W to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends from 09N27W to
06N36W to 10N52W, then resumes from 10N55W to near the border of
Venezuela/Guyana near 08N60W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 09N-12N between 15W-23W, and also
from 03N-07N between 32W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge axis extends from the Atlantic Ocean to across Florida to
across the central Gulf along 26N. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted over Florida, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms elsewhere N of 25N and E of 90W. Additional typical
summer afternoon convection is across the SE United States and
Cuba, as well as over SE Mexico. Mainly gentle to moderate return
flow prevails across the Gulf, locally fresh in the NE Gulf
coastal waters, along with 2-4 ft seas except 3 ft or less in the
SE Gulf.

Surface ridging will prevail the entire forecast period with a
center of high pressure fluctuating between the NW and NE basin.
This will allow for the continuation of moderate to locally fresh
southerlies across the basin, except for light variable wind in
the vicinity of the high.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the eastern Caribbean.

A large mid-upper level anticyclone is noted NE of the Virgin
Islands with ridging extending across the majority of the basin
along roughly 15N. Other than typical summer afternoon convection
across inland areas, the open waters are fair. Afternoon
scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh across the central and
eastern Caribbean except fresh to strong near the N coast of
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with gentle to moderate
trades in the western Caribbean, except locally fresh to strong
near the Gulf of Honduras.

High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds in the s-central Caribbean through Sat, increasing to near
gale force Thu and Fri night. Strong winds will pulse at night in
the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Fri night. Expect increasing
winds, seas and active weather over the Tropical N Atlantic waters
today and Tue associated with a tropical wave that will cross the
Lesser Antilles on Tue. This wave will affect the eastern
Caribbean through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for information on Post-tropical
Cyclone Edouard and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A broad ridge axis along 29N/30N dominates the open waters of the
tropical Atlantic with mainly fair weather outside of isolated
showers and thunderstorms W of 65W. Light and gentle winds prevail
N of 27N, except locally moderate to fresh in the central and
north Florida coastal waters where the gradient is locally tight
and near convection moving from inland portions into the coastal
waters. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft N of 27N and W of 65W, and 4-6 ft
N of 27N and E of 65W. Moderate to fresh trades prevail S of 27N,
except locally fresh to strong from 14N-22N.

Low pressure across the SE U.S. will approach the coast of the
Carolinas Wed through Thu and drag a trough across the northern
Florida offshore waters. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will
affect most of the area Wed through Sat night.

$$
Lewitsky
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