[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 060238
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
1100 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020

Satellite images indicate that the cyclone has become better
organized during the past several hours, with a large convective
burst causing a better-defined low-level circulation.  While the
center is now becoming exposed due to southwesterly shear, the
maximum winds have almost certainly increased from earlier, so the
initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. A recent partial ASCAT pass of
at least 30 kt outside the RMW also supports the upgrade to a
tropical storm, and the CIMSS satellite consensus (SATCON) is even
higher than the analyzed intensity.

Edouard is moving northeastward even faster than before, or 055/30
kt. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on a quick
northeastward or east-northeastward motion for the next couple of
days before the system degenerates into a trough.  Extratropical
transition is anticipated by 24 hours due to forcing from a
middle-latitude trough and a frontal boundary.  Some minor
strengthening of Edouard due to the transition process is possible
over the next day or so before the global models show a gradual
weakening.  The track forecast has been adjusted a bit faster to
account for the latest guidance and initial forward speed, and the
intensity forecast has also been nudged upward to account for the
current wind speed.

Edouard is the earliest known 5th named storm on record for the
Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the
record formerly held by Emily on July 12, 2005.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 37.2N  56.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 39.6N  51.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 42.9N  44.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  07/1200Z 46.5N  37.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/0000Z 50.0N  29.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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