[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 052032
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
500 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020

The depression’s cloud pattern has become less organized today,
with increasing separation between the remaining convective activity
and the low-level center.  The circulation also appears to be less
defined, but the various ASCAT instruments missed the center late
this morning and were not helpful in determining if a well-defined
center still exits.  Data from the ASCAT-C instrument revealed some
25-30 kt wind vectors over the southeastern portion of the system,
so the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The depression is moving northeastward or 055/23 kt. The system
should continue to accelerate northeastward or east-northeastward
during the next day or so.  Given the expected acceleration and
current structure, it would not be surprising if the system
degenerated into a trough of low pressure later today or tonight.
The depression or its remnants, however, are forecast to transition
into an extratropical cyclone on Monday. Little change in strength
is forecast although it is possible that the system will
produce tropical-storm-force winds by the time it becomes
extratropical on Monday as it accelerates and gains some baroclinic
support.  Only slight adjustments were made to the previous NHC
track and intensity forecast, and the new official forecast is near
the middle of the dynamical model envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 35.8N  60.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 37.9N  56.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 41.1N  48.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  07/0600Z 44.5N  41.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  07/1800Z 48.0N  34.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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