[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052315
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2315 UTC Sun Jul 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Five is centered near 35.8N 60.5W at 05/2100
UTC or 300 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 23 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 23W
southward from 20N is moving west at 10 kt. Saharan dust is
noted over much of the eastern Atlantic, mainly from 10N to 22N
east of 35W, and no significant convection is noted at this time
near the wave axis.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 40W southward
from 20N is moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N-09N between 38W-40W.

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 64W
southward from 22N is moving west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted along the wave axis, mainly south of 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Senegal and Gambia
near 13N17W to 06N35W. The ITCZ continues from 06N35W to 07N37W,
then continues from 08N40W to 09N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N-12N between 45W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Divergence aloft on the east side of a mid to upper level low
centered near 25N90W is supporting scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf. At the surface, a small
1012 mb low pressure area is centered over the north central
Gulf south of Mobile Bay near 28N88W. Farther west, weak surface
high pressure centered near 25N93W dominates the western Gulf.
Gentle to moderate breezes and seas of 1 to 3 ft are observed
across the basin.

For the forecast, the low pressure system near 28N88W will move
inland along the northern Gulf Coast early Mon. A high pressure
ridge will persist along 25N-26N for the next several days, with
moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds prevailing over the
waters W of 90W. A low pressure trough will move off the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening and freshen winds over the southwest
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening upper trough extends from over the Windward Passage
to central Panama. Subsident northerly flow on the west side of
this feature has suppressed the showers and thunderstorms
previously active in the southwest Caribbean. Aside of from a few
showers over the southeastern Caribbean, little to no convection
is evident at this time across the basin. Ridging north of the
area is maintaining fresh trades over the southern Caribbean,
possibly reaching 25 kt off Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades
are observed elsewhere across the basin. Seas range 3-6 ft, with
8 ft seas north of Colombia.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge across the western
Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-
central Caribbean through Thu night. Locally strong winds are
expected tonight across the Gulf of Honduras, followed by pulses
of fresh winds through Tue night. Winds and seas will increase
slightly over the Tropical N Atlantic waters Mon through Tue with
the passage of a pair of tropical waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section for information on T.D. Five.

A weak surface trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic from
29N west of 70W. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted within
90 nm north of the trough, west of 77W. A few showers and
thunderstorms are also noted over the central Bahamas. This is
in an area of divergence aloft between an upper ridge along 27N
and an upper low over the southern Bahamas. A surface ridge
extends along 25N west of 55W, supporting gentle to moderate
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft persist over open waters. For the
forecast, the surface ridge along 25N will gradually lift
northward this week. A weak low pressure trough offshore of
northern Florida will drift northward tonight and dissipate by
Mon. Low pressure may approach the coast of the Carolinas later
this week and pull a trough across the northern Florida offshore
waters. Increasing winds and seas are possible over the waters
north of 27N Wed through Fri.

Farther east, a surface ridge extends from 1032 mb high pressure
near the Azores toward the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong
trades and 7 to 10 ft seas are noted over much of the eastern
Atlantic between this ridge and the deep tropics.

$$

Christensen
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