[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051651
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1251 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Five is centered near 34.5N 63.0W at 1500
UTC, or 160 nm NE of Bermuda, moving NE at 18 kt. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb and maximum sustained wind
speed remains 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas estimated to range
between 7-8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm Ne
of the center. A faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion
is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
the depression will accelerate away from Bermuda today. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 22W
southward from 19N is moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N-11N between 17W-24W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 39W southward
from 20N is moving west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is
noted at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 55W southward
from 20N is moving west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is
noted at this time.

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean with axis along the
Lesser Antilles near 63W southward from 22N is moving west at 15
kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Senegal near 13N17W to
08N27W. The ITCZ continues from 08N27W to 07N37W, then continues
from 08N40W to 09N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 200 nm of the ITCZ between 31W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level trough continues to linger across the central Gulf.
Meanwhile, at the surface, a trough has formed in the central Gulf
from 30N88W to 25N90W. This system has a 10 percent chance of
forming in the next 48 hours. Scattered moderate convection is
noted in the northern and eastern Gulf, N of 24N between 83W-93W.
Gentle to moderate ESE winds are noted across the basin with seas
ranging from 2-3 ft.

A low pressure trough over the north-central Gulf will lift
northward and move inland on Mon. A high pressure ridge will
persist along 25N-26N through the middle of this week, with
moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds prevailing over the waters
W of 90W. A low pressure trough will move off the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening and freshen winds over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
affecting the basin.

Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the coast of Nicaragua and
showers are also seen in the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, no
significant convection is noted at this time across the Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate trades are observed across the basin. Seas
range 3-6 ft, with 8 ft seas north of Colombia.

A high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through
Thu night. Locally strong winds are expected tonight across the
Gulf of Honduras, followed by pulses of fresh winds through Tue
night. Winds and seas will increase slightly over the Tropical N
Atlantic waters Mon through Tue with the passage of a pair of
tropical waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section for information on T.D. Five and
the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A weak surface trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic from
28N71W to 30N79W. Widely scattered moderate convection is across
the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas, N of 24N between 71W-
80W. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the rest of the
domain anchored by a 1033 mb high near 39N32W. Light to gentle
winds are noted in the eastern and central Atlantic, with fresh
winds in the eastern Atlantic. Strong to near gale force winds are
observed along the Canary Islands. Seas in the western Atlantic
range 3-4 ft with 6 to 9 ft across the central Atlantic.

A high pressure ridge along 24N-25N will gradually lift northward
this week. Weak low pressure centered near 29N76W will drift
northward through tonight and dissipate by Mon. Low pressure
expected to move off the southeast U.S. coast later this week may
increase winds and seas offshore of northern Florida Wed through
Thu night.

$$
AReinhart
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