[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 050836
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
500 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020

Convection has increased in association with Tropical Depression
Five during the past several hours, with satellite imagery showing
cooling cloud tops near the center and data from the radar on
Bermuda indicating some banding.  An earlier scatterometer
overpass showed 25-30 kt winds to the southeast of the center, and
so far sustained winds at the various automated stations on Bermuda
have been in the 20-30 kt range.  Based on this, the initial
intensity remains 30 kt.

The initial motion is now northeastward or 055/17.   The cyclone
should accelerate to the northeast or east-northeast over the next
couple of days as it encounters the stronger mid-latitude
westerlies.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered, although
the guidance has trended faster for this advisory.  Based on this,
the new forecast track is similar in direction, but faster than,
the previous forecast.

Some strengthening could occur today, and the forecast peak
intensity of 35 kt is a little below the intensity consensus.  The
guidance now suggests that extratropical transition should occur by
36 h, and the the forecast has been adjusted to reflect that.  It
remains possible that the depression will open up into a trough
later today, but for now this forecast maintains continuity with
the previous one in maintaining the system as a cyclone.

Locally heavy rain and gusty winds should persist on Bermuda for
the next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 33.3N  64.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 35.4N  61.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 38.3N  56.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 41.4N  49.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  07/0600Z 44.4N  43.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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