[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 050238
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
1100 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020

The depression remains poorly organized, with a shrinking area of
deep convection to the south of the partially exposed center.  The
intensity remains 30 kt pending receipt of scatterometer data this
evening, perhaps generously.  The cyclone should accelerate to the
east-northeast over the next couple of days as it encounters
stronger mid-level flow.  Track guidance is tightly clustered, and
no significant changes were made to the previous forecast.

After tonight's diurnal convective maximum period, the chances of
the depression to strengthen are fairly low due to increasing shear
and cooler waters.  Thus only a slight increase in wind speed is
forecast, similar to the model consensus.  Extratropical transition
is shown in a couple of days due to the system becoming embedded in
a front and a mid-level trough. It is possible, however, that the
depression will open up into a trough on Sunday, as suggested by the
latest GFS model, but for now this forecast maintains continuity
with the previous one.

Locally heavy rain and gusty winds from the depression should start
on Bermuda during the next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 32.5N  66.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 34.0N  63.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 37.0N  59.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 39.7N  53.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 42.5N  47.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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