[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Jul 02 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W from 16N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: the wave is
moving through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation. A great
part of the wave is embedded in the dry Saharan Air Layer.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. The wave is just to
the east of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands. Precipitation: An
upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 30N54W
cyclonic circulation center, to the NE Caribbean Sea. Isolated
moderate from 15N to 20N between the tropical wave and 62W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W from 18N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is between the eastern islands of the
Caribbean Sea and 71W, from 18N southward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/85W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is along the eastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 14N
northward from Jamaica westward. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally strong is inland in Central America, from
Nicaragua to Honduras, El Salvador and in southern sections of
Guatemala. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, between 74W in
Colombia and beyond southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate to strong is from 07N to 11N
between 70W in NW Venezuela and 76W in Colombia. Scattered
moderate to strong also is from 11N to 13N between 81W and 83W.

A tropical wave is along 91W/92W, from 21N in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico, southward, moving westward 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180
nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 21N southward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N22W and 07N37W and 05N40W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N40W, to 03N43W, and 03N50W. Precipitation: numerous
strong is along the coast of Africa, within 240 nm of the coast,
from 06N to 11N. This precipitation is associated with the next
tropical wave, which is forecast to arrive in the Atlantic Ocean
later in the day today. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere within 270 nm to the north of the monsoon trough from
the 33W/34W tropical wave eastward; within 240 nm on either side
of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between the 33W/34W tropical wave and
50W; and from 08N southward between 50W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers most of the Gulf of
Mexico, from 90W westward. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from
27N southward from 90W eastward.

A tropical wave is along 91W/92W, from 21N in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico, southward, moving westward 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180
nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 21N southward.

A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 29N90W.

High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through
Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. The wave is just to
the east of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands. Precipitation: An
upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 30N54W
cyclonic circulation center, to the NE Caribbean Sea. Isolated
moderate from 15N to 20N between the tropical wave and 62W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W from 18N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is between the eastern islands of the
Caribbean Sea and 71W, from 18N southward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/85W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is along the eastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 14N
northward from Jamaica westward. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally strong is inland in Central America, from
Nicaragua to Honduras, El Salvador and in southern sections of
Guatemala. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, between 74W in
Colombia and beyond southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate to strong is from 07N to 11N
between 70W in NW Venezuela and 76W in Colombia. Scattered
moderate to strong also is from 11N to 13N between 81W and 83W.

High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh to
occasionally strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean
Sea through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 30N54W
cyclonic circulation center, to the NE Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 17N
northward between 42W and 56W.

A ridge will prevail across the area through the weekend. A weak
trough will linger off the coast of northern Florida through
Thursday. A weak cold front will stall to the east of the
Georgia coast this weekend.

$$
mt
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