[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An active tropical wave is approaching the W coast of Africa, and
it is forecast to enter the Atlantic Ocean on Thu.

A tropical is along 32W from 05N to 16N, moving west at 10-15
kt. A great portion of the wave is embedded in the dry Saharan
Air Layer. Only isolated moderate convection is noted on either
side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles, with axis along 57W
extending S of 19N to the coast of South America. It is moving at
15-20 kt. African dust follows the wave limiting convection near
the wave axis.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis
along 66W. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Only a few showers
are near the wave axis. This wave could enhance some shower and
thunderstorm activity over Puerto Rico on Thu.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean and extends from
the Cayman Islands to near the Panama/Costa Rica border. Moisture
associated with this wave will affect Nicaragua and Honduras on
Thu helping to induce some convective activity.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 12N17W
to 08N30W to 06N42W. The ITCZ continues from 06N42W to 05N53W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N-11N
between 20W-25W, and from 07N-09N between 35W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure located over the NE Gulf dominates the
basin producing gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W and
light and variable winds E of 90W. Little change in this weather
pattern is expected through the weekend. Convection is limited
across the Gulf waters as Saharan dust is still noted over the
western part of the Gulf based on the Saharan Layer tracking
product from CIMSS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the
Colombian/Panamanian low is supporting fresh to strong trades
across the south-central Caribbean. This is forecast to persist
through the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
trades will prevail for the next several days.

Daytime heating, local sea breezes and available moisture are
helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
Greater Antilles late this afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the area.

The 1028 mb Bermuda-Azores High is located near 34N43W with a
ridge extending westward over the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh
trades are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge. A
weak trough is over NE Florida, and it is forecast to linger off
the coast of northern Florida through Thu, then move eastward
across the waters N of the Bahamas through at least Sat. A weak
cold front will stall east of the Georgia coast this weekend.
The remainder of the Atlantic will remain under the influence of
the Bermuda-Azores High. The center is forecast to retreat
eastward toward the end of the week as the aforementioned trough
moves eastward over the SW N Atlantic.

The Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS shows African dust dominating
most of the Atlantic between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles. This region has some reductions in visibility because
of the dust.

$$
GR
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