[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Jul 01 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W from 20N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Precipitation: the wave is moving
through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W from 14N southward,
moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: the wave is
moving through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from 16N
southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is between 60W and the tropical wave from 15N
southward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 20N
southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 08N to 11N between 72W and
78W. The monsoon trough is along 07N/09N between 75W in Colombia
beyond 84W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: from 09N
to 11N between 80W and 83W in the coastal waters and the coastal
plains of Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau, near 12N16W, to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W,
to 08N30W, to 06N41W, to 05N49W, to 08N55W, and to 10N61W.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the
ITCZ between 21W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers most of the Gulf of
Mexico, from the NE corner of the area westward. Parts of the SE
Gulf of Mexico are under upper level cyclonic wind flow from a
NW Caribbean Sea upper level cyclonic circulation center. A
ridge extends from a southern Mexico anticyclonic circulation
center, to Florida. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near
27N86W.

Warming cloud top temperatures and convective debris clouds,
from weakening and possibly still active precipitation, cover
the Atlantic Ocean, Florida, and the Gulf of Mexico from 27N
northward between 78W and 85W.

High pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will weaken and
drift southward through Friday. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail across the basin through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 16N southward,
moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave
is along 77W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 15 to 20
knots. The monsoon trough is along 07N/09N between 75W and
beyond 84W in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate west of a
line that runs from SE Cuba to the eastern tip of Honduras at
the border with Nicaragua. Isolated moderate also is in parts of
northern Nicaragua, central sections of Honduras, in El
Salvador, and in southern sections of Guatemala.

Persistent high pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will
maintain fresh to occasionally strong trade winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea through Friday. Moderate trade winds are
expected elsewhere for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, associated with a trough, covers
the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 43W and 60W. A
surface trough is along 53W from 19N to 28N. Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is
from 15N to 18N between 56W and 60W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 14N between 40W and 60W.

A cold front extends from 36N68W to 31N70W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is from 28N to 33N west of the cold
front to 76W.

A ridge, extending from the central Atlantic Ocean along 25N,
will prevail through the weekend. Rain showers are likely in the
northern waters during the next few days, as a weak trough
lingers off the coast of northern Florida, through Thursday.
Also expect a weak cold front, that will stall to the east of
the Georgia coast, this weekend.

$$
mt/dbm
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net