[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Jul 01 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: the wave is
moving through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W from 14N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: the wave is
moving through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 16N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is between 60W and the tropical wave from 15N southward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is from 08N to 11N between 72W at the border of
Venezuela with Colombia and 78W, in Colombia and Venezuela, and
including in the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia. The monsoon trough
is along 07N/09N between 75W in Colombia beyond 84W in the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: from 09N to 11N between
80W and 83W in the coastal waters and the coastal plains of
Panama.

A tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 15N in Honduras
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: an
upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to the west
of the line that runs from SE Cuba to the eastern tip of
Honduras at the border with Nicaragua. Isolated moderate also is
in parts of northern Nicaragua, central sections of Honduras, in
El Salvador, and in southern sections of Guatemala.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau, just to the south of Senegal, near 12N16W, to
08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W, to 07N22W, 08N28W
06N40W, to 05N41W 05N51W, 08N55W, and to 10N61W about 25 nm off
the southern coast of Trinidad. Precipitation: widely scattered
to scattered moderate and isolated to widely scattered strong is
within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 22W
and 56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers most of the Gulf of
Mexico, from the NE corner of the area westward. Parts of the SE
corner of the Gulf of Mexico are covered with upper level
cyclonic wind flow from the NW Caribbean Sea upper level
cyclonic circulation center. A ridge extends from a southern
Mexico anticyclonic circulation center, to Florida.

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 27N87W.

Warming cloud top temperatures and convective debris clouds,
from weakening and possibly still active precipitation, cover
the Atlantic Ocean, Florida, and the Gulf of Mexico from 27N
northward between 78W and 85W.

High pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will weaken and
drift southward through Friday. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail across the basin through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 16N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is between 60W and the tropical wave from 15N southward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is from 08N to 11N between 72W at the border of
Venezuela with Colombia and 78W, in Colombia and Venezuela, and
including in the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia. The monsoon trough
is along 07N/09N between 75W in Colombia beyond 84W in the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: from 09N to 11N between
80W and 83W in the coastal waters and the coastal plains of
Panama.

A tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 15N in Honduras
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: an
upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to the west
of the line that runs from SE Cuba to the eastern tip of
Honduras at the border with Nicaragua. Isolated moderate also is
in parts of northern Nicaragua, central sections of Honduras, in
El Salvador, and in southern sections of Guatemala.

Persistent high pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will
maintain fresh to occasionally strong trade winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea through Friday. Moderate trade winds are
expected elsewhere for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 43W and 60W. A surface
trough is along 53W/54W from 17N to 28N. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 15N
to 18N between 56W and 60W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 14N between 40W and 60W.

A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 34N71W. A cold front
extends from the 1011 mb low pressure center to 31N71W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 180 nm to
420 nm to the WSW of the low pressure center. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is within 380 nm of the 1011 mb low pressure
center in the southern semicircle.

A ridge, extending from the central Atlantic Ocean along 25N,
will prevail through the weekend. Rainshowers are likely in the
northern waters during the next few days, as a weak trough
lingers off the coast of northern Florida, through Thursday.
Expect a weak cold front, that will stall to the east of the
Georgia coast this weekend.

$$
mt
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