[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane LAURA, at 26/0300 UTC, is near 25.2N
89.5W. The position of LAURA is about
350 nm/655 km to the SE of Lake Charles in Louisiana, and about
375 nm/695 km to the SE of Galveston in Texas. LAURA is moving
WNW, or 300 degrees, 15 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 978 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 80
knots with gusts to 100 knots. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 140 nm of the center in the N
semicircle, and within 110 nm to 150 nm of the center in the S
semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 75 nm of the western coast of Florida from 26N to 28N.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within
300 nm of the center in the N quadrant. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 23N southward from 90W westward. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/31W from 18N
southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is part of the monsoon trough precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 18N
southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is part of the monsoon trough precipitation.

A tropical wave is along 91W/92W, from 16N southward, moving W
15 to 20 knots. The tropical wave extends from Guatemala
southward, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The monsoon trough is
along 11N73W in NE Colombia, northwestward beyond central
Nicaragua, through southern Honduras, El Salvador, southern
Guatemala, along the coast of Mexico near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, and beyond 17N102W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
between Guatemala and Mexico along 98W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the central part of the
coastal sections of Mauritania, to 15N25W, 12N30W 10N40W 09N45W,
and 07N50W. The ITCZ is along 08N/09N between 54W and 60W.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is in inland areas and in coastal areas from 270
nm to 330 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 12W and
19W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 400 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough between 20W and 51W, and within 160
nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The post-tropical/remnant low of Marco is about 30 nm to the SSE
of the border of the upper Texas Gulf coast and SW Louisiana, at
1007 mb. The low pressure center is moving westward 5 to 10
knots. The low pressure center continues to spin down. It will
become a trough, soon, as it continues westward for the next 24
hours. Precipitation: isolated moderate is inland within 100 nm
of the center in the N quadrant.

A tropical wave is along 91W/92W, from 16N southward, moving W
15 to 20 knots. The tropical wave extends from Guatemala
southward, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The monsoon trough is
along 11N73W in NE Colombia, northwestward beyond central
Nicaragua, through southern Honduras, El Salvador, southern
Guatemala, along the coast of Mexico near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, and beyond 17N102W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
between Guatemala, and Mexico along 98W.

Hurricane Laura center near 25.2N 89.5W 978 mb at 11 PM EDT is
moving WNW at 15 kt. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 80 kt
with gusts to 100 kt. Laura will continue to strengthen as it
reaches near 26.5N 91.4W this Wed morning with maximum sustained
winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt; and continue in the NW Gulf of Mexico
while intensifying into a major hurricane near 28.7N 93.1W Wed
evening with maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt; then
move inland to 31.2N 93.8W Thu morning and begin to weaken with
maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Laura will move
inland more, and weaken to a tropical storm near 33.7N 93.6W Thu
evening; and to a tropical depression well inland near 36.0N
92.3W on Friday morning; and to near 37.2N 89.5W Fri evening
before becoming extra-tropical. Expect long-period swell from
Laura to impact most of the basin through Thursday. Atlantic
Ocean high pressure will build westward into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico in the wake of Laura.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 100 nm to
the WSW of Jamaica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from the Mona Passage westward. This is the same
upper level cyclonic circulation center that has been within 700
nm to 900 nm or so from what is now Hurricane Laura, during the
last few days. A surface trough is along 27N70W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to Haiti. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong covers the Caribbean Sea from 20N
southward from the Mona Passage westward.

A tropical wave is along 91W/92W, from 16N southward, moving W
15 to 20 knots. The tropical wave extends from Guatemala
southward, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The monsoon trough is
along 11N73W in NE Colombia, northwestward beyond central
Nicaragua, through southern Honduras, El Salvador, southern
Guatemala, along the coast of Mexico near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, and beyond 17N102W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
between Guatemala and Mexico along 98W.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will shift southward, gradually,
through the next few days. Expect an increase of trade winds in
the central and northeastern sections of the Caribbean Sea. A
tropical wave is expected to move across the eastern Caribbean
Sea from Thursday through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 100 nm to
the WSW of Jamaica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from the Mona Passage westward. This is the same
upper level cyclonic circulation center that has been within 700
nm to 900 nm or so from what is now Hurricane Laura, during the
last few days. A surface trough is along 27N70W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to Haiti. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 63W westward, with a trough that extends
northeastward away from the Jamaica cyclonic circulation center.
Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the Atlantic Ocean in
the areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow, from 60W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward, from 65W eastward.

High pressure just to the north of the area will shift
southward, gradually, through the rest of this week and into
Saturday. A cold front will reach the southeastern coast of the
U.S.A. late on Saturday, and it will reach to just north of the
area on Sunday. Fresh southwest winds will precede the front.

$$
mt
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