[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Laura is centered near 24.7N 88.3W at 25/2100 UTC or
420 nm SE of Lake Charles Louisiana moving WNW at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 19N to 27N between 85W and 89W.
Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36
hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall.
Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall. A turn toward
the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to
north-northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move across
the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Wednesday. The hurricane should approach the Upper Texas
and Southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and move inland
near those areas late Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for
more details.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W from
02N-17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N-11N between 22W-34W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W from near
the border of French Guiana and Brazil to 18N, moving westward at
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-07N
between 48W-52W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the northernmost coastal
sections of Mauritania to 19N16W to 08N48W. The ITCZ extends from
09N53W to near the border of French Guiana and Brazil. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-14N
between 12W-18W and from 06N-08N between 38W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special features section above for details on
Hurricane Laura.

Outside of Laura, the post-tropical/remnant low of Marco is near
29N92W with a pressure of 1010 mb and moving westward at 5-10 kt.
The low continues to spin down and will soon become a trough as
it continues westward for the next 24 hours. Scattered showers are
near the low. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is in the
western Gulf of Mexico from 18N-26N and W of 96W.

Expect long-period swell from Laura to impact most of the basin
through Thu. Atlantic high pressure will build westward over the
eastern Gulf in the wake of Laura through the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection due to Hurricane
Laura is over the far NW Caribbean and Yucatan Channel as
described above.

Very active convection is noted in the SW Caribbean as the monsoon
trough extends from the east Pacific along 10N/11N to northern
Colombia. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is S of
14N and W of 74W.

Atlantic high pressure will gradually shift southward through the
next few days leading to an increase of trade winds over the
central and northeast portions of the Caribbean as Hurricane Laura
continues to move away from the basin. Fresh to strong winds will
also develop in the vicinity of the Gulf of Honduras and E-SE of
the Yucatan Peninsula Wed night through the weekend, mainly at
night. A tropical wave is expected to move across the eastern
Caribbean Thu through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 24N68W to the N-central coast of
Hispaniola. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring from 21N-25N between 68W-72W. A 1019 mb high is noted
SE of Charleston, South Carolina near 32N77W. Another 1019 mb high
is noted near 31N35W. Broad high pressure ridging covers the
waters N of 24N supporting mainly moderate trades S of 24N and
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow N of 24N.

An area of 8-9 ft seas in mixed swell from roughly 16N-26N
between 28W-40W will gradually decay by the end of the week.

The high offshore of the Carolinas will gradually shift southward
through the rest of this week and into the weekend. Fresh to
strong SE winds over the SW part of the area will diminish to
mainly moderate tonight.

$$
Lewitsky
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