[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
616 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Thirteen is centered near 15.2N 49.8W at
20/0900 UTC or 790 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands moving
WNW at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection stretches from
10N to 20N between 46W and 53W. Seas are up to 10 ft near the
center. On the forecast track, the depression will move near the
Leeward Islands late Friday into early Saturday, near or north of
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday or Saturday night,
then near Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas early Sun. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml
for more details.

Low pressure of 1008 mb near 15N78W is moving west at 15 to 20 kt
and is producing showers and thunderstorms over the central
Caribbean Sea. This system is gradually becoming better organized,
and a tropical depression is likely for form in a couple of days
when the system reaches the NW Caribbean Seas. Interests in
Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor its
progress. Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely
produce heavy rains across a large portion of Central America and
southeastern Mexico late this week and this weekend. Formation
chance through 48 hours is high. Please refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is emerging off the west coast of
Africa around 18W from 18N southward, moving west at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm either
side of this tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 43W from 19N
southward and is moving west at 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection has developed in association with this wave from 09N to
12N between 35W and 43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 60W from 20N
southward and is moving westward 15-20 kt knots. Convection
previously associated with this wave has diminished.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania
near 19N16W to 12N34W. The ITCZ begins near 12N49W to the coast
of Guyana near 08N60W. Convection along these two features is
associated with systems described above in the Special Features
and Tropical Waves sections.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front resides along the Louisiana coast, with a weak
surface trough extending in the northern Gulf from 30N89W to
24N92W. Broad ascent over the northeast Gulf is leading to
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection N of 23N and E of
91W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of less than 2 ft
prevail.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Thirteen near 15.2N 49.8W 1008 mb
at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
gusts 40 kt. Thirteen will move to 16.4N 52.7W this afternoon and
strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.5N 56.4W Fri morning. The
tropical storm will then reach near 18.4N 60.2W Fri afternoon,
19.1N 63.9W Sat morning, 19.8N 67.1W Sat afternoon, and 20.8N
71.0W Sun morning. Thirteen is forecast to remain a tropical
storm as it passes near eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas
early Mon. This system could impact portions of the eastern Gulf
of Mexico early next week. Meanwhile, low pressure over the
central Caribbean Sea this morning has a high chance of tropical
formation in the northwest Caribbean within a couple of days.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor the
progress of this low, which could impact the central and western
Gulf of Mexico for the start of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See above discussion in Special Features for the low pressure over
the Caribbean.

For the portions of the eastern and western Caribbean sea not
being impacted by the low pressure, gentle to moderate trades are
occurring. Scattered convection is confined to areas along the
Pacific monsoonal trough, within about 180 nm of the Panama coast.
Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 9 ft near the low in the central
Caribbean.

Tropical Depression Thirteen near 15.2N 49.8W 1008 mb
at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
gusts 40 kt. Thirteen will move to 16.4N 52.7W this afternoon and
strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.5N 56.4W Fri morning. The
tropical storm will then reach near 18.4N 60.2W Fri afternoon,
19.1N 63.9W Sat morning, 19.8N 67.1W Sat afternoon, and 20.8N
71.0W Sun morning. Thirteen is forecast to remain a tropical
storm as it passes near eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas
early Mon. Meanwhile, low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
this morning has a high chance of tropical formation in the
northwest Caribbean within a couple of days. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is expected across a large part of
Central America and SE Mexico through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See above discussion in Special Features regarding Tropical
Depression Thirteen.

A weakening cold front is sagging south over the east-central
Atlantic, from 31N30W to 29N38W to 31N45W. No convection is
occurring with this front. To the west, high pressure of 1021 mb
centered near 31N50W continues to dominate much of the basin.

Fresh east winds are occurring off the north coast of Hispaniola,
with moderate trades occurring in the Atlantic from 15N to 25N
between 35W and 50W. Otherwise, light to gentle winds prevail.
Farther east, fresh to strong northerly winds are off the coasts
of Western Sahara and Mauritania. Seas range 4-7 ft.

Tropical Depression Thirteen near 15.2N 49.8W 1008 mb
at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
gusts 40 kt. Thirteen will move to 16.4N 52.7W this afternoon and
strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.5N 56.4W Fri morning. The
tropical storm will then reach near 18.4N 60.2W Fri afternoon,
19.1N 63.9W Sat morning, 19.8N 67.1W Sat afternoon, and 20.8N
71.0W Sun morning. Thirteen is forecast to remain a tropical
storm as it passes near eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas
early Mon.

$$
KONARIK
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