[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200507
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM Thu Aug 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly formed Tropical Depression Thirteen is located near 14.6N 47.W
at 20/0300 UTC, or about 900 miles ESE of the northern Leeward
Islands. TD Thirteen has sustained maximum winds of 30 kt with gusts
to 40 kt and is moving WNW at 17 kt. It has an estimated minimum
central pressure of 1008 mb. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 300 nm of the center in the NW quadrant and within 200 nm in
the southern semicircle. Seas are up to 9 ft near the center. On the
forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of
the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml
and Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 75W from eastern Cuba
southward with a 1008 mb low centered near 15N75W. The wave is
moving westward at 15-20 knots and is producing a concentrated area
of showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea. This
system is gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in a couple of days when the system
reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  This low pressure area is
moving westward, and interests in Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula
should closely monitor its progress. Regardless of development, this
disturbance will likely produce heavy rains across a large portion
of Central America and southeastern Mexico late this week and this
weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours is high. Please refer to
the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 42W from 19N
southward and is moving westward 15-20 knots. No significant deep
convection is occurring currently in association with this wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 57W from 20N
southward and is moving westward 15-20 kt knots. Scattered
thunderstorms are noted from 11N-20N between 55W-59W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania
near 19N16W to 12N33W. The ITCZ begins near 12N49W to the coast of
Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the
monsoon trough from 05N-10N between 14W-30W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 100 nm of the ITCZ between 49W-58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped over the NW Gulf of Mexico from south-
central Louisiana to the southeast Texas coast. A surface trough
extends from SE Louisiana near 30N90W to 25N93W. Scattered
thunderstorms are in the eastern Gulf, N of 22N and E of 89W. Winds
are light across the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Thirteen  will move to 16.1N
50.8W Thu morning, then strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.4N
54.6W Thu evening. Thetropical storm will reach near 18.4N 58.4W Fri
morning, 19.1N 62.1W Fri evening, 19.9N 65.9W Sat morning, and 20.8N
69.7W Sat evening. Thirteen will change little in intensity as it
moves to near the Turks and Caicos Islands and SW Bahamas late Sun.
Also, low pressure in the central Caribbean Sea tonight has a high
chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours as it reaches the
NW Caribbean. This system could impact the Yucatan Channel and other
portions of the central and western Gulf for the start of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See above discussion in Special Features for the Tropical Wave
over the Caribbean.

A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda  High northeast of the
Caribbean and the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean is promoting
only gentle to moderate trades in the Caribbean away from the
vicinity of the tropical wave. Moderate to fresh winds are noted to
the east of the tropical wave, stretching from Jamaica to the
eastern Caribbean.  No other significant deep convection is noted in
the Caribbean outside of that caused by the tropical wave. Seas
range 3-6 ft with upwards of 9 ft near the low in the central
Caribbean.

Tropical Depression Thirteen will move to 16.1N 50.8W Thu morning,
then strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.4N 54.6W Thu evening.
The tropical storm will reach near 18.4N 58.4W Fri morning, 19.1N
62.1W Fri evening, 19.9N 65.9W Sat morning, and 20.8N 69.7W Sat
evening. Thirteen will change little in intensity as it moves to
near the Turks and Caicos Islands and SW Bahamas late Sun. Also, low
pressure over the central Caribbean Sea has a high chance of
tropical formation in the next 48 hours in the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See above discussion in Special Features TD Thirteen.

Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the western Atlantic, N of
23N between 68W-80W. A cold front is sinking across the east-central
Atlantic, stretching from 31N39W to 31N40W. No significant
convection is noted with this cold front. High pressure spans across
the rest of the domain anchored by a 1021 mb high near 30N51W.
Moderate to fresh winds are north of Hispaniola and parts of the
central Atlantic, otherwise light to gentle winds are observed
across  most of the basin. Farther east, fresh to strong northerly
winds are off the coasts of Western Sahara and Mauritania. Seas
range 4-7 ft.

Tropical Depression Thirteen will move to 16.1N 50.8W Thu morning,
then strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.4N 54.6W Thu evening.
The tropical storm will reach near 18.4N 58.4W Fri morning, 19.1N
62.1W Fri evening, 19.9N 65.9W Sat morning, and 20.8N 69.7W Sat
evening. Thirteen will change little in intensity as it moves to
near the Turks and Caicos Islands and SW Bahamas late Sun.

$$
AReinhart
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