[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
612 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Josephine is centered near 20.3N 64.0W at 16/0900
UTC or 130 nm NNW of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at
13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 240 nm of
the center in the eastern semicircle. Josephine will gradually
turn NW today, NNW tonight, then N Mon. Josephine is expected to
pass well north of the Leeward Islands today, but it's progress
should still be monitored. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in
the Leeward and Virgin Islands today, and Puerto Rico today and
Mon. By this afternoon, Josephine is expected to weaken into a
tropical depression. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml
for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kyle is centered near 40.0N 58.9W at
16/0900 UTC or 470 nm SW of Cape Race Newfoundland moving E at
17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Kyle has now
become post tropical and will continue to weaken before being
absorbed by another low early this week as it continues moving E.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is moving off the coast of
Africa along 15W this morning. The wave axis extends from 02N to
16N and is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A large area of scattered
convection exists with this wave from 08N to 14N E of 20W.

A weak eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W from 08N to
22N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has
developed in association with this wave, from 12N to 16N between
27W and 33W.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 48W from 20N
southward, moving west at 15 kt. From 05N to 12N between 41W and
49W, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring. This fast moving wave is not expected to develop
further through Mon, but has a low chance of development once it
reaches the Caribbean. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours, as well as over the next 5
days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Africa near 16N16W to
13N22W to 12N36W. The ITCZ stretches from 12N36W to 11N43W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave from 09N48W to 07N57W. Aside from
the convection related to the tropical waves described above,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N- 12N between 53W-
60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a
1016 mb high near 27N91W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
over the SW Bay of Campeche, mainly south of 21N, and scattered
moderate convection is occurring just off the Louisiana coast.

High pressure sagging south through the Gulf will support gentle
winds and slight seas across the through mid-week. Locally fresh
winds are possible late this evening in the eastern Bay of
Campeche near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. A weak
cold front may stall along the northern Gulf coast Mon into Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection associated with an upper-level cyclonic circulation
over Cuba has generally diminished overnight. The east Pacific
monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection over the SE Caribbean, mainly S of 14N. Otherwise
mainly dry conditions prevail. See the Special Features section
above for information on the potential for heavy rain in the far
NE Caribbean from Tropical Storm Josephine today and Mon as it
passes N and E of the basin. Moderate trades exist across most of
the basin, with some locally fresh east winds occurring off the
coast of Colombia.

Tropical Josephine will pass well north of the Leeward
and Virgin Islands today and tonight, then move farther away from
the area Mon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across
the south- central Caribbean through early week, with strongest
winds expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. A strong tropical wave is forecast to cross the
Windward Islands late today into early Mon, then reside in the
eastern Caribbean early this week, where it has a low chance of
tropical formation in the next 5 days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm
Josephine.

A surface ridge prevails across the subtropical Atlantic from
a 1023 mb high S of the Azores to a 1021 mb high near 31N51W to
southern Florida, leading to gentle winds and fair weather north
of 26N. In fact, fair weather prevails across the basin north of
20N, with the exception of Tropical Storm Josephine.

Tropical Storm Josephine near 20.3N 64.0W 1009 mb at
5 AM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt
gusts 45 kt. Josephine will weaken to a tropical depression
near 21.1N 65.6W this afternoon, then move to 22.4N 67.4W Mon
morning. By Mon afternoon, Josephine will weaken to a remnant
low near 23.8N 68.7W, and be near 25.4N 69.1W Tue morning. The
remnant low will then reach 27.0N 68.9W Tue afternoon, and 28.2N
68.3W Wed morning, and near 30.0N 66.5W early Thu. Otherwise,
persistent high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic into
the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate south to
southeast winds. A weak cold front may stall just offshore the
southeast U.S. coast early next week.

$$
KONARIK
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