[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160459
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Josephine is centered near 20.1N 62.6W at 16/0300
UTC or 115 nm NNE of the northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at
12
kt. Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 210 nm of the center in the eastern
semicircle. The WNW motion is expected to continue for the next
day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest and north
early
this week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is
expected to pass to the northeast and north of the Leeward
Islands
through today. It is possible that locally heavy rainfall may
reach the areas of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico, as Josephine passes to the north of
that
area. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml
for more details.

Tropical Storm Kyle is centered near 40.0N 60.4W at 16/0300 UTC
or 515 nm SW of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving ENE at 17 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm eastern semicircle. Kyle will
continue moving ENE until after it transitions to a post-tropical
cyclone later today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been added to the analysis
along 28/29W from 08N-22N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Little to no
significant shower activity is noted with the wave at this time.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 45W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate to
strong convection is within 240 nm either side of the wave axis
from 05N-12N. Upper-level winds are expected to become a little
more conducive for development by mid-week as it approaches the
Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea. There is a
low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48
hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Africa near 16N17W to
13N22W to 12N35W. The ITCZ stretches from 12N35W to 11N43W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave from 09N47W to 07N58W. Aside from
the convection related to the tropical waves described above,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-15N between
18W-23W. Another area of scattered strong showers prevails from
08N-12N between 53W-60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a
1015 mb high near 27N91W. Isolated showers and tstorms are mostly
just inland along the coast of Louisiana. Scattered showers and
tstorms are over the southern Bay of Campeche, mainly south of
21N.
ASCAT shows light to gentle anticyclonic winds covering the
basin,
except for moderate E to SE winds over the Bay of Campeche.

High pressure sagging south through the Gulf will support gentle
winds and slight seas across the basin through mid-week. Locally
fresh winds are possible tonight in the eastern Bay of Campeche
near the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. A weak cold
front may approach the northern Gulf coast Mon night into Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level cyclonic circulation centered over central Cuba
is enhancing scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the
NW Caribbean, north of a line from 17N88W to 20N76W. The east
Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing isolated strong convection
over the SW Caribbean, mainly south of 12N. Scattered showers
and isolated tstorms are possible this morning over the SE
Caribbean from Trinidad to the ABC Islands. Elsewhere,
Tropical Storm Josephine, described in the Special Features
section above, may bring some rain today to the northern
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as the center
passes to the north of those islands. The latest ASCAT pass
shows moderate trades across the central Caribbean with gentle
winds elsewhere.

Squalls associated with Tropical Storm Josephine will come very
close to the northernmost Leeward and Virgin Islands today as
the center passes just to the north. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh trade winds will continue across the south-central
Caribbean through early this week, with strongest winds expected
near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. A
strong tropical wave, currently along 45W, has a low chance of
tropical cyclone development as it approaches the eastern
Caribbean Sea early this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge prevails across the subtropical Atlantic from
a 1024 mb high near 35N26W to a 1022 mb high near 31N52W to
the southern tip of the Florida Peninsula, leading to gentle
winds and fair weather north of 26N. In fact, fair weather
prevails across the basin north of 20N, with the exception of
Tropical Storm Josephine.

Tropical Storm Josephine is forecast to gradually weaken to a
tropical depression by Monday morning near 24N68W, then
become a remnant low Tuesday morning near 27N69W. Otherwise, a
persistent high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic into
the Gulf of Mexico will support gentle to moderate southeast
winds. A weak trough may move just offshore the southeast U.S.
coast early this week.

$$

Hagen
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