[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 160844
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020

Josephine's low-level center has raced out over 100 n mi to the
west of a remnant area of deep convection, which itself is
shrinking and becoming more disorganized.  Due to the loss of
organization, it is assumed that Josephine's maximum winds have
decreased, and the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, which matches
the latest Current Intensity estimates.  Analyses from the UW-CIMSS
indicate that Josephine is now being pounded by about 35 kt of
southwesterly shear, and a zone of even higher shear exists to the
northwest of the cyclone.  Therefore, continued weakening is
expected, and Josephine could lose all of its organized deep
convection and become a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner.
The NHC forecast holds a remnant low after 36 hours until the end
of the forecast period, but it is entirely possible that the
hostile conditions will cause Josephine to dissipate at any time,
with the circulation opening up into a trough.

The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt,
although this heading is a bit to the left of the previous motion,
suggesting even further that Josephine is becoming a shallower
cyclone steered by lower-level winds.  Still, there should be
enough low- to mid-level troughing moving off the U.S. east coast
later today and on Monday to cause Josephine, or its remnants, to
recurve toward the north and northeast by day 5.  The track
guidance agrees on this scenario, although the newest official
forecast is a little slower and to the right of the previous
prediction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Josephine is passing far enough to the north of the Leeward
Islands to prevent major impacts.  However, interests there should
continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north
of that area.

2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by
to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto
Rico through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 20.3N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 21.1N  65.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 22.4N  67.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 23.8N  68.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0600Z 25.4N  69.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/1800Z 27.0N  68.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z 28.2N  68.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0600Z 30.0N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0600Z 31.0N  64.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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