[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 160238
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122020
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020

Although Kyle continues to lose its overall tropical appearance, a
burst of deep convection redeveloped, albeit sheared to the
northeast of the low-level center, which is close enough to the
center to still the system classified as a tropical cyclone.
ASCAT-A/-B passes at 2333Z/0047Z easily supported winds of 35 kt
south through southwest of the center and, allowing for some slight
undersampling, the initial intensity has thus been lowered to 40 kt.

The initial motion is 075/17 kt. There is no significant changes to
the previous track forecast or reasoning. Kyle is expected to
continue moving east-northeastward tonight and Sunday morning,
maintaining that eastward motion until the cyclone is absorbed into
a larger extratropical low in a couple of days. The official
forecast similar to the previous advisory track and essentially
lies near the center of the NHC track guidance envelope.

Kyle's low-level center is becoming increasingly stretched out
northeast-to-southwest and the earlier burst of deep convection has
also recently begun to wane, succumbing to 40 kt of westerly
deep-layer vertical wind shear. Thus, Kyle is not long for this
world, with the cyclone expected to lose all convection within the
next 6 to 12 hours, and continue to weaken and degenerate into a
post-tropical cyclone Sunday morning. It is highly possible that the
next advisory could be the last forecast on Kyle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 40.0N  60.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 40.6N  57.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  17/0000Z 41.1N  53.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  17/1200Z 41.2N  49.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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