[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060643
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Aug 06 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for: North America, Central America,
the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and the Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on: satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W, from 18N
southward, moving W 15 knots.
Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is in the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 knots.
Precipitation: any other nearby precipitation is in the monsoon
trough/ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 150 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 11N to
17N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is about 135 nm to the south of Jamaica.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
Haiti westward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is
within 90 nm on either side of the line that extends from 11N78W
12N81W 15N82W 16N86W. The precipitation is occurring around the
periphery of the upper level cyclonic circulation center.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes the coastal sections of Mauritania
near 18N16W, to 15N20W 10N29W, and 09N42W and 09N48W. The ITCZ
is along 09N/10N between 48W and 63W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 270 nm to south
of the monsoon trough between 20W and 38W; isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere within 75 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough between 24W and 28W, and from 11N southward
between 38W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico,
with a trough. The trough is supporting a stationary front that
is inland, from SW Georgia, to southern Alabama, southern
Louisiana, and beyond east Texas. Precipitation: numerous strong
was in SW Louisiana at 05/2300 UTC; isolated to widely scattered
moderate was in the coastal plains and coastal waters of SE
Louisiana at the same time. That precipitation has been moving
toward the S and SE with time, and weakening and dissipating.
Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds cover
the Gulf of Mexico from 27N northward between 90W and 94W.

A 1015 mb high pressure center is near 27N92W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.

Light to gentle variable wind will dominate the Gulf of Mexico
through Monday night, as a weak surface ridge prevails. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds are expected at night in the eastern half
of the Bay of Campeche, and in the adjacent Yucatan Peninsula
waters, associated with a surface trough. Fresh to
strong winds are likely in the SW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday
night, as a tropical wave moves to the south of the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 135 nm to
the south of Jamaica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from Haiti westward. A tropical wave is along
86W/87W, from 19N southward. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong is within 90 nm on either side of the line that
extends from 11N78W 12N81W 15N82W 16N86W. The precipitation is
occurring around the periphery of the upper level cyclonic
circulation center.

A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 100 nm
to the SE of Puerto Rico. A separate area of upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 10N to 20N from Haiti
eastward.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from Colombia along 74W
westward, beyond southern sections of Costa Rica. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is in Colombia and in the Caribbean
Sea coastal waters from 07N to 10N between 73W and 77W;
scattered moderate to strong is in Colombia and in its eastern
Pacific Ocean coastal waters from 05N to 07N between 76W and 79W.

The pressure gradient, between moderate high pressure in the SW
N Atlantic Ocean, and the eastward extension of the NE Pacific
Ocean monsoon trough to Colombia, will support fresh to strong
trade winds across the central basin. Strong trade winds will
increase and expand across central sections, during  the
weekend, with the passage of a pair of tropical waves. Near
gale-force winds are expected in the Colombia coastal waters and
in the Gulf of Venezuela on Saturday night and Sunday night.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras and in the E Caribbean Sea through Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb low pressure center is about 260 nm to the WSW of
Bermuda. A surface trough extends about 135 nm to the north, and
another part of the trough extends about 210 nm to the ESE of
the low pressure center. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
from 28N to 33N between 65W and 72W. The low pressure center is
expected to drift west-southwestward during the next couple of
days. Any development of this low pressure center should be slow
to occur, due to dry air and increasing upper level winds by the
weekend.

A surface trough is along 32N49W, to 28N52W and 24N65W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally
strong is from 20N to 27N between 50W and 70W.

A weak low pressure center will prevail across the northern
waters near 30N70W, through Friday night, when it is expected to
dissipate. The remainder of the area will be under the influence
of a
surface ridge from the Bermuda high. Expect light to gentle
variable winds, except to the south of 23N, where moderate to
fresh easterly winds will dominate the Great Bahama Bank and the
waters that are to the north of Hispaniola.

$$
mt
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