[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W south of 17N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 06N to 10N within 240 nm east of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W south of 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with the wave at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W south of 17N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 12N to 15N within 150 nm east of the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W south from 18N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 15N to 20N between 80W and 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 11N24W to 08N32W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N44W
to 10N51W, then resumes from 10N56W to the coast of Brazil near
09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 150 nm
of the monsoon trough between 21W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper-level trough that extends across the southern
Mississippi Valley and into the far northern Gulf is supporting
isolated convection near and offshore of the northern Gulf Coast.
At the surface, a 1017 mb high pressure center maintains a ridge
across the northern Gulf. A surface trough analyzed over the SE
Gulf is associated with some isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Light to gentle winds prevail across the basin, with seas 3 ft or
less throughout based on altimeter data and buoy observations.

Light to gentle, variable winds will dominate the Gulf waters
through Mon night as a weak surface ridge prevails. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds are expected at night in the eastern half of
the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan peninsula adjacent waters
associated with a surface trough. Fresh to strong winds are
likely in the SW Gulf Thu night as a tropical wave moves south of
the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The interaction of a tropical wave near 84W and an upper-level
low centered south of Jamaica is supporting scattered moderate to
strong convection over the NW Caribbean waters. Water vapor
imagery over the eastern Caribbean shows drier mid-level air
prevails across the region, with no convection noted in recent
satellite imagery.

At the surface, the pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge
axis and the Colombian low is producing enhanced Caribbean trade
winds. Earlier scatterometer data showed a large area of fresh to
strong trades over the central Caribbean, where seas are 7-10 ft
based on available altimeter data. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
trades prevail across the rest of the basin.

High pressure over the SW N Atlantic extending to the northern
Caribbean, the eastward extension of the NE Pacific monsoon trough
to Colombia, and the passage of two tropical waves will support
fresh to strong trades across the central basin, which are
expected to extend to the SW Caribbean tonight. Near gale-force
winds are expected over Colombia adjacent waters and the Gulf of
Venezuela Sat and Sun night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
easterly winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and in the E
Caribbean through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Weak 1018 mb low pressure is centered near 30N70W, with isolated
convection noted near a surface trough that extends NW from the
low center. Farther east, another surface trough extends from 1017
mb low pressure near 32N51W to 26N57W to 27N65W. Moderate SE winds
are occurring within 180 nm east of the trough axis. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds are noted over the waters S of 20N and E
of 60W, south of a weak subtropical ridge. Seas are 4-6 ft in this
region based on recent altimeter data and buoy observations.

A weak low pressure will prevail across the northern waters NE of
the Bahamas through Fri night when it is expected to dissipate.
The remainder area will be under the influence of surface ridging
from the Bermuda high, which will support light to gentle variable
winds, except south of 23N where moderate to fresh easterly winds
will dominate the Great Bahama Bank and Hispaniola adjacent waters.

$$
B Reinhart
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