[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021709
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
109 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 26.9N 79.5W at 02/1500
UTC, about 50 miles SE of Port Fierce, Florida and about 105 miles
SSE of Cape Canaveral, Florida, and is moving NNW at 7 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 995 mb. Max seas are up to 22 ft near the
center of Isaias. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted
across the northern semicircle in addition to the SE quadrant,
from 25N-30N between 76W-81W. Isaias will continue moving NW
through Monday morning. A turn toward the north and north-
northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an increase in
forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will
move near the east coast of Florida today through late tonight. On
Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move from offshore
the coast of Georgia into the mid-Atlantic states. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 20W from 18N
southward, moving westward near 15 mph. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave axis between 06W-
13W.

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 38W from 14N
southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
prevails in the vicinity of the wave axis from 09N-12N between
38W-40W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 62W from 23N
southward, moving west at 15 kt. Since this wave is still within
close proximity to an upper-level trough to its northwest, the
convection has been enhanced. It has also induced a surface trough
analyzed from 20N57W- 15N59W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 15N-22N between 57W-67W. This system is forecast to move
through environmental conditions that are conducive for additional
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of the week. This system is forecast to
turn northwestward and then northward over the western Atlantic,
passing north of the Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. It has
a low chance, 30 percent, of development through the next 48
hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 10N28W to 10N48W. The ITCZ continues from 10N48W to 11N60W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described
above, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
along and south of the boundaries to 02N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level ridging spans across most of the Gulf with an upper
level trough beginning to enter the NW basin. A 1016 mb high
pressure is analyzed near 26N92W. A trough extends across the Bay
of Campeche from 23N94W to 19N93W. Showers and thunderstorms
continue off the coasts of Texas and Louisiana, N of 25N between
90W-96W. Showers and thunderstorms are also noted in the Bay of
Campeche near the trough. Thunderstorms from Isaias are moving
across north-central Florida and are approaching the NE Gulf.
Winds are light to gentle. Seas range from 2-4 ft.

Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue near the west coast
of Florida through early Mon as Isaias moves N-NW near or over
the east coast of Florida. Mainly gentle winds will prevail across
the Gulf waters Mon through Thu as weak high pressure over the
northern Gulf drifts southward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the NW Caribbean from 22N84W to
16N88W with a 1012 mb low along it near 19N87W. Scattered
thunderstorms are within the vicinity of this feature from 16N-22N
between 85W-89W. Isolated thunderstorms are also moving southward
from central and eastern Cuba into the adjacent waters.
Otherwise, isolated showers are noted in the central and eastern
Caribbean. Winds are light to moderate across the basin. Seas
range from 3 to 6 ft, with upwards of 7 ft north of Colombia.

Fresh trade winds are expected to persist over the central
Caribbean waters through Wed, then strengthen late in the week. A
tropical wave and weak surface trough will bring slightly
increased winds and seas to the Tropical N Atlantic waters N of
15N and E of 64W through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section for more information on T.S.
Isaias.

High pressure sprawls across most of the Atlantic, anchored by a
1022 mb high near 29N46W. Several troughs are analyzed in the
central Atlantic: one from 30N41W to 23N41 with no significant
convection associated with it, and the other from 35N31W to 28N36W
and no significant convection associated with it. A trough left
over from T.D. Ten is NE of the Cabo Verde Islands and is analyzed
from 22N25W to 17N28W. Winds are light to moderate with fresh
winds near the Canary Islands. Seas range from 4-8 ft, with 8-12
ft near Isaias in the SW northern Atlantic, to 22 ft.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move N-NW near or over the east of
Florida to near 28.0N 80.1W this evening, 29.6N 80.5W Mon morning,
and then accelerate N-NE and pass N of the waters to 32.2N 79.8W
Mon evening. Large seas associated with Isaias will spread
northward across the waters W of 75W through Mon, then gradually
subside late Mon night through Tue. A low pressure trough
associated with a tropical wave will approach the SE waters
tonight. This system may gradually become better organized as it
tracks NW across the waters through midweek, bringing increased
winds and seas.

$$
AReinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net