[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
603 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 26.3N 79.5W at 0900 UTC or
about 45 nm east-northeast of Fort Lauderdale, moving NW at 8 kt.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Satellite imagery
depicts scattered to numerous moderate convection south of 29N
across Bahamas near 22N between 76W-80W. A north-northwest motion
is expected today, which will take the center of Isaias along or
very near the east coast of Florida, before accelerating northward
Monday and exiting the area waters Mon night. Isaias appears to
have missed its opportunity overnight to re-strengthen to a
hurricane and will remain a strong tropical storm through Mon.
Large seas and strong and very rough surf will spread from south
central Florida northward ahead of Isaias through Monday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 19W-20W from 04N- 18N, moving
westward near 15 mph. Scattered moderate convection is noted in
the vicinity of the wave axis between 16W-22W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W from
01N to 15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails in the vicinity of the wave axis between 32W-
38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 61W from 04N-
23N, moving west at 15 kt. Since this wave is still within close
proximity to an upper-level trough to its northwest, the
convection has been enhanced. Scattered moderate convection is
from 16N-23N between 55W-63W. This system is forecast to move
through environmental conditions that will favor development
within the next couple of days. A tropical depression could form
from it early next week. Please monitor the latest Tropical
Weather Outlooks for future updates on this system.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
16N17W to 10N30W to 10N41W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
06N57W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves
described above, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted along and south of the boundaries to 00N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf with a 1015 mb high
analyzed near 28N87W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are
noted in scatterometer data over most of the basin, except
south of 26N and east of 87W where gentle to moderate winds
prevail. Scattered moderate convection is along the coasts of
Texas and Mexico and moving offshore reaching the northwest Gulf
waters. Observed wave heights throughout the basin remain in the
2-3 ft range.

Mainly gentle winds will prevail across the Gulf waters through
the middle of next week as weak high pressure over the northern
Gulf drifts southward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the northwestern Caribbean from
22N82W to the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 120 nm west of the trough. Scattered moderate
convection is noted across the northwest Caribbean related to T.S.
Isaias. This activity covers from north of 17N and is between
69W-78W.

Fresh trade winds will persist over the central Caribbean waters
through the middle of next week. A tropical wave will bring
increased winds and seas to the basin E of 65W tonight through
Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical
Storm Isaias, Tropical Depression Ten, and the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb
high centered near 29N49W. The pressure gradient in place
generally supports light to moderate winds across the area, with
the exception of fresh to strong winds over the waters south of
27N and west of 70W. Wave heights range 5-8 ft across most of the
area, with higher wave heights of 7-12 ft seas in the SW northern
Atlantic outside of the Bahamas and are associated with T.S.
Isaias.

Tropical Storm Isaias will begin to move N-NW today and move
along and very near the east coast of Florida, reaching reaching
near 28.8N 80.6W Sun night, and near 33.7N 79.1W Mon night.Large
seas will persist today near and offshore of the Bahamas and
extending across the waters of SE Florida. These seas will spread
northward across the waters W of 75W through Mon. Low pressure
developing along the N portion of a tropical wave is expected to
become better organized as it approaches the SE waters Sun night
and could become the next tropical cyclone early this week as it
moves NW across the outer waters.

$$
Stripling
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