[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281720
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 28/1500 UTC, is near 22.5N
44.8W. Lorenzo is moving to the N at 9 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 957 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 100 kt
with gusts to 120 kt. Lorenzo is forecast to remain a strong
hurricane when it turns northeastward towards the Azores. Numerous
strong convection is within 90 nm N semicircle and 120 nm S
semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is elsewhere
within 240 nm NE quad and 180 nm remaining quads. The latest
ASCAT pass shows that tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 240 nm NE quad and 190 nm SE quad, while 25 kt winds extend
outward up to 390 nm NE quad and 330 nm SE quad. Please read the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

Heavy rain event in Southern Mexico: Abundant moisture associated
with Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E and southwesterly
monsoonal flow from the tropical Pacific Ocean will affect the
Pacific Coast of Mexico. This will result in the potential for
heavy rainfall from the Mexican state of Chiapas to Nayarit
through Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches are expected. This rainfall may cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
mountainous terrain. See the latest public advisory on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31
or the website www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W, from 11N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well-depicted by model
diagnostics and TPW imagery. Isolated moderate convection is from
03N-11N between 31W-38W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W, from 20N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
over the Virgin Islands and surrounding waters. Isolated showers
are within 90 nm of the wave axis from 10N-15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 05N32W. The ITCZ extends from 05N37W to 09N54W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04.5N-07N between
22W-27.5W and from 03N-09N between 08W-15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid to upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is in the SW Gulf
of Mexico south of 21N and west of 93W. Elsewhere south of 24N and
west of 92W, isolated moderate convection is seen. This convection
in the SW Gulf is related to a weather system in the East Pacific
across the other side of Mexico. The latest ASCAT pass has
moderate to locally fresh SE winds across portions of the western
Gulf of Mexico. High pressure ridging north of the area across
the southern states will prevail across the region through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave along 64W is responsible for enhanced rainfall
today across the Virgin Islands. A surface trough over Cuba and an
upper-level low over the southwest Caribbean are enhancing
scattered moderate rainshowers from 14N-23N between 76W-84W.
Another surface trough along the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 17N-21N
between 85W-89W. The East Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing
scattered moderate convection in the SW Caribbean south of 14N and
west of 76W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen over
northern Costa Rica and SE Nicaragua. The latest ASCAT pass shows
gentle winds across much of the Caribbean, with moderate trades in
the south-central Caribbean.

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
through the weekend. A broad area of low pressure may form over
the western Caribbean early next week. Swells generated from
Hurricane Lorenzo will continue to propagate into the tropical N
Atlc and Caribbean passages this weekend into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from the Central Bahamas to central Cuba
to near the Cayman Islands. Scattered moderate rainshowers and
isolated tstorms are seen across the Central Bahamas and portions
of the SE Bahamas. The remnants of Karen are a 1012 mb low
pressure center that is near 30N58W. A surface trough extends from
the low pressure center, to 25N58W and 22N62W to 20N70W.
Scattered moderate rainshowers and isolated tstorms are within 120
nm of the trough. Broken cirrus clouds along with scattered
showers extend to the east of Hurricane Lorenzo from 20N-30N
between 22W-37W.

The remnants of TS Karen will drift westward as a trough through
Wed. High pressure building N of the area will increase winds and
seas across the northern waters into early next week. Large swells
from Hurricane Lorenzo cover will cover the Atlantic today from
05N-32N between 35W-65W. These swells will increase tonight
between 65W-70W and will reach 75W by Sunday. By Sunday afternoon,
E swells of 6 to 9 ft are forecast to be affecting the waters
from 20N-32N between 65W-70W.

$$
Hagen
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