[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281105
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 28/0900 UTC, is near 21.4N
44.8W. Lorenzo is moving NNW, or 330 degrees, 9 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 100 knots with gusts to 120 knots.
Precipitation: Numerous strong within 180 nm of the center in
the N semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within
120 nm of the center in the S semicircle, and elsewhere within
270 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Isolated moderate is
within 1150 nm of the center in the remainder of the area of the
NE quadrant. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC,
or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...A heavy rain event in Central America and Southeastern
Mexico...

Southwesterly monsoonal flow is pushing abundant moisture from
the tropical Pacific Ocean toward the areas of Guatemala, and
the states of Mexico from Chiapas to Colima. Expect heavy
rainfall through the weekend. It is possible that the heavy
rains may lead to flash floods and mudslides, especially in
areas of mountainous terrain and along the Pacific Ocean coast.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/34W, from 11N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate from 10N southward between 30W and 41W. Some of this
precipitation also is related to the monsoon trough and the ITCZ.

A tropical wave is entering the eastern areas of the Caribbean
Sea, along 62W/63W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: Isolated moderate from 15N southward between 56W
and 68W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N23W and 04N33W. The ITCZ is along 04N35W to
07N46W, to 09N54W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong within 240 nm on either side of the monsoon trough
between 18W and the 32W/34W tropical wave. Isolated moderate
from 10N southward from 50W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A heavy rainfall event has been forecast for Guatemala and the
states of Mexico from Chiapas to Colima, during this weekend.
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION for more details.
Precipitation: numerous strong in the SW Gulf of Mexico, from
20N southward between 93W and 95W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico from 26N
southward from 92W westward, in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and
in the NW Caribbean Sea between 86W and Guatemala.

Satellite imagery and GFS model data show middle level to upper
level anticyclonic wind flow in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE-to-SW
oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge to the north of the area, across the southern
U.S.A., will prevail in the Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A heavy rainfall event has been forecast for Guatemala and the
states of Mexico from Chiapas to Colima, during this weekend.
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION for more details.
Precipitation: numerous strong in the SW Gulf of Mexico, from
20N southward between 93W and 95W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico from 26N
southward from 92W westward, in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and
in the NW Caribbean Sea between 86W and Guatemala.

A middle to upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
14N78W, about 240 nm to the S of Jamaica. Middle level to upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 20N
southward between 70W and 84W. Precipitation: numerous strong
within 100 nm of the coasts of Costa Rica and the east central
coast of Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong
elsewhere from 74W westward.

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
Sea through the weekend. It is possible that broad low pressure
may form in the western Caribbean Sea early next week. Swells
generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will continue to propagate into
the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the eastern Caribbean
Sea passages, from this weekend into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of Karen are a 1012 mb low pressure center that is
near 30N58W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure
center, to 25N59W and 22N64W. A second and separate surface
trough is along 24N73W, across central Cuba, to 19N82W in the NW
part of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough extends from a
31N73W cyclonic circulation center, toward NW Cuba.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 14N
northward in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean, from
56W westward. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov,
for more details.

The remnants of TS Karen will drift westward as a trough through
Wednesday. High pressure building N of the area will increase
the wind speeds and the sea heights across the northern waters
into early next week.

$$
mt
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