[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 14.7N 38.1W at 25/300 UTC or
915 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 13
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm of the center in
the W semicircle, and 250 nm of the center in the E semicircle.
Thunderstorms in the outer bands extend 390 nm NE and SW quadrant
from the center. Lorenzo will continue to move towards the west-
northwest today and then take a turn to the northwest on Thursday,
followed by a turn to the north by Saturday. Lorenzo is forecast
to become a major hurricane on Thursday, with some additional
strengthening possible through Friday. Please read the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 24.4N 63.6W at 26/0300 UTC
or 445 nm NNE of San Juan Puerto Rico moving NNE at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 21N-24N between 62W-64W. A north-northeastward
to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected through early Friday. Karen or its remnants are then
expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the
southwestern Atlantic into the weekend. Little change in strength
is forecast during the next several days. Please read the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

...A heavy rain event in Central America and Southeastern
Mexico...

Southwesterly monsoonal flow is pushing abundant moisture from
the tropical Pacific Ocean toward Central America. Heavy rainfall
is expected in Central America, through the weekend. The greatest
threat for heavy rainfall will migrate northwestward to areas
from southern Guatemala to southern Mexico, including in the
Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero. It is possible
that the heavy rains may lead to flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain and areas near the
Pacific coast.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 50W, from
04N-19N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted
along the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 16N16W to 14N30W, resumes west of Hurricane Lorenzo
near 10N44W to 08N48W. Scattered showers are possible near the
boundary.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the central Gulf into the Bay of
Campeche from 26N92W to 21N91W with scattered showers and tstorms.
A trough in the Yucatan Peninsula is producing an area of
scattered moderate to strong convection inland with some moving
offshore south of 21N. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1013 mb high centered over
southern Mississippi.

A surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula will move slowly
westward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico Sat.
Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A heavy rainfall event is expected in Central America and
southeastern Mexico. Please read the Special Features section
above for more details.

An upper level trough extends from a 24N73W upper level cyclonic
circulation center, into the waters that are between Jamaica,
Cuba, and Haiti. A surface trough is analyzed from the Windward
Passage near 19N74W across Jamaica to NW Caribbean Sea near
19N85W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and south of
the trough from 16N-19N between 74W-85W. To the east, the
southern periphery of T.S. Karen is enhancing convection across
Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. Scatterometer data depicts light
to gentle winds across the whole basin.

A fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and
low seas will prevail across the western and central Caribbean
through Thu, with more typical conditions and trades returning by
the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical wave,
Hurricane Lorenzo and T.S. Karen.

An upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic from a
cyclonic circulation center that is near 20N-24N along 49W. This
trough is enhancing scattered showers mainly in the vicinity of
the trough axis. To the east, scattered showers 25N-31N between
37W-45W due to upper level divergence enhancing this convection.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

Tropical Storm Karen will move to 26.0N 62.9W Thu morning, 27.5N
62.0W Thu evening, 28.0N 61.0W Fri morning, 28.3N 60.0W Fri
evening, and weaken to a tropical depression near 27.5N 61.5W Sat
evening. Karen will become a remnant low as it moves to 26.6N
64.5W late Sun, and continues to 26.5N 67.0W Mon.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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